Vindkraftens framtida scenarier
Wind turbineExportSaleRecyclingHalveEnergy certificateVindkraftverkExportFörsäljningåtervinningHalveraElcertifikat
In several countries that have been early in the development of wind farms, there is today a second hand market for the used wind turbines. The European Union (EU) has established a waste hierarchy in order to minimize throwaway mentality. The second hand market is a part of this as the steps are to minimize, reuse, recycle, extract energy and landfill.In order to promote the development of renewable energy, there are energy certificates for the producers that provide it, wind power being one type of renewable energy. After 15 years the energy certificates for a specific wind turbine are no longer paid, and after that there are several different scenarios for the wind turbine. The scenarios investigated in this bachelor?s thesis are export of the wind turbine to countries that are not as far along as Sweden in their development towards renewable energy, selling in Sweden to individuals, and recycling of the wind turbine, as it mostly consists of metals and therefore is recyclable. In these three scenarios it is assumed that the sites for wind turbines are being reused for new larger wind turbines that produce more energy. Two additional scenarios are to reduce the number of wind turbines in a wind farm by half, in this way gaining access to free spare parts for the remaining wind turbines and continued operation, i.e. operate them for as long time as possible.To assure the decommissioning of the wind turbines and restoration of the site, there are several economical choices for the operator of the wind turbine. No matter what choice is made, the total amount should be 500 000 SEK according to the permission for the wind turbine. A Swedish authority, Miljöprövningsdelegationen, decides whether the operators choice in reassuring and make a decision based on that.To see which scenario is most profitable the economical part is crucial in this bachelor?s thesis. As a wind turbine is a large investment, the investment calculation is sensitive even to small changes. Inflation, interest rate, electricity price and energy certificate price can all vary a good deal but as it is almost impossible to predict the development of these factors, the inflation, interest rate and energy certificate price are all on a fixed level in this report. The electricity price is assumed to be dependent of the inflation solely. By using these assumptions and Microsoft Excel it has been clear that selling the wind turbine and reuse the site for a new larger wind turbine is the most profitable.Sweden has the goal to have 30 TWh, equivalent to 20 %, electricity from wind until year 2020. Today the part is 6.5 TWh, equivalent to 4 %. To make this goal reality it is necessary to make the permitting process easier and faster than the case is today. If Sweden compares to Denmark they already have 28 % electricity from wind and they aim for 50 %.