Konkursprognostisering
En empirisk studie av småföretag i Sverige
BankruptcyFinancial ratiosSmall buisnessMultiple discriminant analysisCapital structureKonkursNyckeltalSmåföretagMultipel diskriminantanalysKapitalstruktur
Corporate failures pose a problem for banks, investors, customers, employees andinsurers. With a multivariate discrimination method, the study aims to find the specificfinancial ratios that most accurate reveals a company's financial health, which is ofinterest to all of the above parties. The data consist of 1042 Swedish small enterprisesand 30 different financial ratios between the years 2005?2007. The result shows thatbankrupt firms three years before bankruptcy have a disadvantaged capital structurewith poor solvency and high debt. The year before bankruptcy, profitability and liquiditydeclined for bankruptcy group, and rates vary considerably in comparison with thesurviving companies. Our model can correctly classify 91,2 % of the total sample one yearbefore bankruptcy.