Forecasting stock market returns is an interesting topic since more and more Swedes enter and invest in this market. Theory implies, however, that such exercises should be impossible. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the possibility to forecast future stock returns by looking at macroeconomic variables? history. The study is limited to the Swedish market as it is based on the OMXS30-index which represents the 30 most exchanged stocks on Stockholms¬börsen, the Swedish stock exchange.

Syftet med denna studie är att, med hjälp av ett urval tillväxtvariabler, analysera hur det kommer sig att länder rika på naturresurser generellt uppvisar lägre tillväxt än länder som saknar naturtillgångar. Fenomenet brukar benämnas ?the Resource Curse?, eller ?resursfällan? som det här kommer kallas. Utmärkande för denna studie är att jag valt att analysera hur variablen statlig konsumtion interagerar med naturresurstillgången i landet och hur denna interaktion kan leda till att länderna i analysen fastnar i resursfällan..

Uppsatsen är en kvantitativ studie som undersöker vilka faktorer som har kunnat förklara den svenska swapspreaden under tidsperioden 2001-12-31 till 2008-10-31. Resultatet är en linjär regressions modell som påvisar att swapspreaden är kointegrerad med svenska statens upplåningsbehov samt räntespreaden för europeiska kommersiella obligationer. På kort sikt förklaras swapspreaden av bland annat att den är mean reverting kring ett långsiktigt samband med tidigare nämnda variablerna, basis risken, den historiska volatiliteten på aktiemarknaden, bankaktiers utveckling i förhållande till övriga aktiemarknaden samt lutningen på Money Market kurvan..

I denna studie undersöker vi vad som påverkar oljeaktier och oljeservice aktier. Vi har valt ut fem aktier med varierad storlek från varje bransch, på den amerikanska börsen.Vi använde oss av en multipel regressionsanalys för att komma fram till vilket av oljepriset och Dow Jones index som påverkade aktierna mest. Vi analyserade effekterna både på kort och på lång sikt.Studiens resultat visade att på kort sikt påverkade oljepriset och Dow Jones index aktierna ungefär lika mycket, men på lång sikt var det bara oljepriset som hade en inverkan..

The economic development and industrialization that has taken place in many parts of the world during the past century has brought about a huge increase in economic welfare. During this process, it has repeatedly been debated whether the gains from economic development are shared by everyone or just a few. In the field of economics, vast research has been conducted on this particular subject ever since the 1950?s. The most famous contribution might be said to be Simon Kuznets article, Growth and Income Inequality from 1955 and the ?inverted U?-hypothesis that was formulated on the basis of that article.

The economic development and industrialization that has taken place in many parts of the world during the past century has brought about a huge increase in economic welfare. During this process, it has repeatedly been debated whether the gains from economic development are shared by everyone or just a few. In the field of economics, vast research has been conducted on this particular subject ever since the 1950?s. The most famous contribution might be said to be Simon Kuznets article, Growth and Income Inequality from 1955 and the ?inverted U?-hypothesis that was formulated on the basis of that article.

The forecast ability of four well-known exchange rate models for theSwedish krona is tested in this thesis. The models that are tested arethe purchase power parity, the real interest differential model, thesticky-price model and a productivity model. In addition to thebenchmark, the random walk, they are also compared to each other.They are all tested on three different horizons one quarter, two quartersand four quarters. The mean squared forecast error criteria and thedirection of change criteria are used for evaluation of the forecastability. Only in a couple of cases are the forecast ability of thetheoretical based models significant better than the random walk..

This thesis aims to evaluate the concept of Uncovered Interest Parity. The parity states that the logarithmic difference between domestic and foreign interest rate equals the logarithmic difference between expected future spot exchange rate and the spot exchange rate, . In defining the exchange rate it is often presumed that the parity relation prevails even though several studies suggest the opposite. Numerous economists maintain that the theory?s shortcomings can be explained through the existence of a Risk Premium.

I denna uppsats behandlas ett nytt sätt att beräkna korrelationen mellan olika tillgångar. Me­toden, tvärsnittskorrelationen, har framarbetats av Bruno Solnik och Jacques Roulet som be­skriver den i artikeln Dispersion as Cross-sectional Correlation. Vårt syfte är att med hjälp av detta nya sätt beräkna korrelationen över en tio års period på den svenska aktiemarknaden och se om vi kan hitta tendenser i korrelationens utveckling. Korrelationens tendens har tolkats genom trendlinjer och determinationskoefficienter. De re­sultat vi får fram tyder på en ökning i korrelationsnivå inom de flesta av våra observerade sektorer på den svenska aktiemarknaden..

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess whether the overreaction found in ?Does the Stock Market Overreact?? by DeBondt and Thaler still persists today, and by equivalence test if a trading strategy based upon these assumptions would generate abnormal returns. MethodThe research has been carried out by studies of the stocks that for a prior period of one year has over or underperformed their benchmark. The stocks used in my study are all part of S&P500 index, and the period of study runs from three to five overlapping years over the last twenty years. ResultsMy tests indicate that the type of overreaction proposed by DeBondt & Thaler still is present, at least considering the stocks that during the formation period were winners..

The aim ofthis study was to examine how economic growth affects the level of democracy inauthoritarian states. Some of these states have experienced high economicgrowth. However, one can discuss how it affects the country?s democratization-process.For that reason this study was needed to contribute to a clarification of howeconomic growth can affect authoritarian rule and democratization. This wasdone through an examination of the development in China.

Making accurate predictions of private consumption expenditures is a difficult task. This thesis examines if consumer confidence can be used to forecast consumption. Using regression analysis, the link between consumer confidence and private consumption expenditures is analyzed for Sweden between the years 1994 and 2005. Two different models are estimated. In the first model consumption is regressed only on consumer confidence, while model two is extended to contain more variables.

I denna uppsats har förhållandet mellan statligt kapital, humankapital och ekonomisktillväxt undersökts genom en utvidgning av Lucas modellen. I utvidgningen specificeras hur statligt kapital har en positiv effekt i teknologin för utbildning och en negativ effekt i teknologin för privat produktion. Utvidgningen sker genom att staten fördelar sitt kapital mellan offentlig konsumtion i produktionssektorn och investeringar i utbildningssektorn. Produktionsteknologierna antas sedan bero på kvoten mellan genomsnittligt humankapital och andelen statligt kapital i respektive sektor..

The purpose of this study is to make a close and critical scrutiny of the EU Lisbon Strategy and the assumption of `sustainable growth´. A basic question is to clarify what is meant by `sustainability´ in the economic and the environmental dimension respectively, and also, to analyse the meaning of `sustainable growth´. Secondly, I try to investigate the relationship between the economical and environmental dimensions of the strategy. Are the goals of the dimensions compatible and mutually supporting or are they conflicting? By illuminating these issues the study moves towards a final set of questions: What are the arguments that encourage or counteract the Lisbon assumption of `sustainable growth´? Is the European Union approaching `sustainable growth´ looking at different economical and ecological indicators? What are the prospects for the Lisbon Strategy as a way towards global `sustainable development´?.

Den här uppsatsen undersöker om IMF, genom sitt agerande under den finansiella krisen i Indonesien 1997-1998 gav upphov till moral hazard. Problemet analyseras dels kvalitativt genom att titta närmare på de förväntningar som IMF hade på den indonesiska staten och jämföra dessa med den faktiska utgången. Den kvantitativa analysen baserar sig på den monetära betalningsbalansteorin. Genom att observera förändringar i den inhemska kreditexpansionen mäts huruvida den indonesiska penningpolitiken var expansiv eller åtstramande. Såväl den kvalitativa som den kvantitativa analysen visar att IMF bidrog till att moral hazard uppstod..