Kan konsumentförtroende användas för att prognostisera konsumtion i Sverige?
Consumer confidenceRegression analysisPrivate consumption expendituresBusiness cycle prognosisEconomicsEconometricsEconomic theoryEconomic systemsEconomic policyNationalekonomiEkonometriEkonomisk teoriEkonomiska systemEkonomisk politikBusiness and Economics
Making accurate predictions of private consumption expenditures is a difficult task. This thesis examines if consumer confidence can be used to forecast consumption. Using regression analysis, the link between consumer confidence and private consumption expenditures is analyzed for Sweden between the years 1994 and 2005. Two different models are estimated. In the first model consumption is regressed only on consumer confidence, while model two is extended to contain more variables. Model one explains about 25 percent of total private consumption expenditure. In the second model however, the incremental value of including consumer confidence in the regressions is low when other relevant variables are included. The main conclusion is that the value of including consumer confidence in prognosis models for private consumption expenditure is low. However, consumer confidence is available with a shorter publication lag than other economic variables, which means that it might still be of use, as a first indicator of upcoming changes and turning points in private consumption expenditures.