Värdeförändring på butiksfastigheter och makroekonomiska variabler - en ekonometrisk studie av samvariation
Retail real estateEconometricsMacroeconomic variablesRegression analysisValue changesEconomicsEconometricsEconomic theoryEconomic systemsEconomic policyNationalekonomiEkonometriEkonomisk teoriEkonomiska systemEkonomisk politikBusiness and Economics
The purpose of this Bachelor thesis in Economics at Lund University is to try to establish the correlation between the value change of retail real estate buildings in Sweden and macro economic variables. The principal method is the multiple regression model and it is used to estimate the basic model. The basic model is enhanced by estimating some 30 models and the result is two good models. The difference between the basic model and the two better models are small but important. In the lagged basic model, the same variables are used as in the basic model but with different time lags. The adjusted R2-value is 0.86, which is a significantly better result. In the optimal model unemployment is subtracted due to better results without the variable, an adjusted R2-value of 0.864 is attained. The optimal model is supposed to explain the changes in value of retail real estate buildings well. Basic model:värdet=?+?1*BNPt+?2*arbloshett-1+?3*forsdethant+?4*privkonst+?5*SIXRXt-1+?6*statsoblt+?7*värdet-1+e Lagged basic model:värdet=?+?1*BNPt+?2*arbloshett-2+?3*forsdethant-1+?4*privkonst-1+?5*SIXRXt-2+?6*statsoblt+?7*värdet-1+e Optimal model: värdet=?+?1*BNPt+?2*forsdethant-1+?3*privkonst-1+?4*SIXRXt-2+?5*statsoblt+?7*värdet-1+e