Risk för bostadsägare - en analys av risken vid förändringar av ränta och elpris
RäntaRiskElMånadskostnadCost at RiskCox Ingersoll RossEconomicsEconometricsEconomic theoryEconomic systemsEconomic policyNationalekonomiEkonometriEkonomisk teoriEkonomiska systemEkonomisk politikBusiness and Economics
Since 1996 the Swedish households have ten folded their volume of loans for own homes that is attached to a floating interest rate. Also in 1996 the Swedish electric market was deregulated. These two facts have increased the volatility in the household expenses for these two commodities. This thesis studies the risk for homeowners attached to the exposure against the electric and the credit market. The risk model used is Cost-at-Risk which is usually used by public authorities for analysing the risk involved with national debt. The model quantifies the risk into the future expected cost and to the highest future cost, at a certain probability level. By a slight modification of the Cost-at-Risk model to suit the present premise, the household expenses are analysed. For homeowners with loan at a floating interest rate and an electric contract that follow the spot market, a loan of one million SEK and an electric consumption of 5000 kilowatt hours per year is assumed. The conclusion in the thesis states that the risk at present time is relatively low.