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285 Uppsatser om Forecast error - Sida 2 av 19

Ny princip för spänningsreglering i Fortum Distributions mellanspänningsnät i Stockholm.

The voltage regulation in Fortum Distributions medium voltage network in Stockholm does not work satisfactory. This results in too high distribution voltages with many customer complaints as a consequence. The reason is the model responsible for compensating for voltage drops in the distribution network. Despite several adjustments Fortum has not been able to find the source of the high voltages and has therefore appointed an investigation in the form of a thesis work.The aim of this investigation is to locate the error and to produce a proposal regarding the solution of this error using the existing system, common industrial knowledge, state of the art research and the option to use voltage readings from the different substations.The conclusion of this master thesis is that the largest contribution to the high voltage levels is made by the large compensation for distribution loses. Furthermore an additional error in the model has been found.

Prognostisering av aktieavkastningar med hjälp av makroekonomiska variabler - en svensk studie

Forecasting stock market returns is an interesting topic since more and more Swedes enter and invest in this market. Theory implies, however, that such exercises should be impossible. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the possibility to forecast future stock returns by looking at macroeconomic variables? history. The study is limited to the Swedish market as it is based on the OMXS30-index which represents the 30 most exchanged stocks on Stockholms¬börsen, the Swedish stock exchange.

Efterfrågeprognoser : ?En jämförelse av prognosmodeller med avseende på FMCG-marknaden?

An organization must manage its resource consumption and material flows in order to satisfy the demand of its products as efficiently as possible. Managing of the aforementioned requires a balance between the organizations resources (such as the capability of distribution and production) and the market demand. According to Gardner (1990), an estimation of future demand is a necessity for maintaining the balance. An instrument that is used frequently to estimate future demand is demand forecasting. The demand forecasting practice has been thoroughly studied and a plethora of academic contributions exist on the topic.

Får vi se ? datakvalité. Effektivisering av supportprocessen hos Tunga Maskiner AB

Inadequate data quality has a negative effect for organizations, however utilization of modern technology and data analysis may shape new values for organizations. Our research has found that the quality of information in field reports for error reporting varies significantly. In many cases, the information in the field reports are deficient in such way that the field report need additional information from the sender, thus risking prolonging lead times in the error reporting process. More efficient use of information has become possible with today?s technology.

Strategisk och taktisk planering samt länken där emellan : analys av planeringsprocessens genomförande vid SCA Skog

To effectively manage a forest resource for both economic and other values good planning is required. The problem is complex since you want to know which forest to cut and when. Often a hierarchical planning structure is applied, including strategic (long-term), tactical, (medium-term) and operational level. Today SCA Forest is one of few forestry companies in the northern Sweden with an integrated forest wood supply and industry. The goals of the company are to supply their own industries with wood and to manage the resources of the forest through a long-term perspective with satisfactory profitability.

Transferfunktionsmodeller modellering och prognoser av Sjötransportindex

We have by Statistics Sweden (SCB) been given the task of using different dynamic regression models in order to forecast service price index for sea transport. The aim is to see whether these models provide better forecasts than those previously used. This essay aim to identify, estimate and evaluate the selected prediction models. Through our data material we were given access to 28 sightings of sea transport index during the period of 2004 q1 to 2010 q4. We have chosen to evaluate three different transfer function models, one ARIMA model and one naive forecasting model. The input variables we decided to test in our transfer function models were the price of petroleum products, the port activity in Swedish ports and the lending rate of Swedish Central bank. The results of our study suggest that transfer function models generally provide better models than the ARIMA model and the naive forecast model.

Växelkursprognoser för 2000-talet

Titel: Växelkursprognoser för 2000-talet Ämne/kurs: NEKK01, Examensarbete C, 15 högskolepoäng Författare: Kenth Hedberg Handledare: Thomas Elger och Fredrik NG Andersson Nyckelord: Sverige, nominella växelkurser, prognoser, UIP Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att fylla tomrummet av att det bara finns ettfåtal svenska studier för 2000-talet. Uppsatsen kommer att belysa hurden nominella växelkursen ska prognostiseras för att matcha defaktiska värdena på bästa sätt. Metod: Tillvägagångssättet för denna uppsats är att skapa prognoser utifråntre olika prognosmetoder som sedan jämförs med de faktiska värdenaav den nominella växelkursen. Det bestäms sedan utifrån treutvärderingskriterierna vilken metod som därefter ger det bästautfallet. Slutsats: Visar att AR(1) och AR(1) med ränta prognostiserar bättre än randomwalk med en kortsiktig prognoshorisont.

Kommunikationseffektivitet och kommunikationsstrategier för L1- och L2-talare i referentiella problemlösningsuppgifter

This thesis examines and measures differences in effciency between L1- and L2 language use for solving referential problems. Quantitative measures used in the study were time and error frequency. Qualitative measures, such as how the tasks and the participants own performance were experienced, were measured by an post interview and two questionaires. Two different tasks, a sorting task and a construction task, in which each informant was given the role as a constructor or instructor, were used for data gathering. A total of 20 dyads, divided in two language groups (English and Swedish) participated in the study.

Vad driver de svenska småhuspriserna?

Syftet med denna uppsats är att utreda vilka faktorer som påverkar de svenska småhuspriserna, och i så fall hur och i vilken utsträckning. Med stöd av tidigare studier som enhetlig pekar ut bolåneräntan och disponibel inkomst som de faktorer vilka har tydligast inverkan på fastighetspriserna i Sverige, utökas de förklarande variablerna i denna studie med hjälp av en stock-flow modell. Tidsseriedata från 1993-2013 behandlas för enhetsrötter och kointegration för att skattas i en regressionsanalys i form en "Error Correction Model", med avsikten att utreda både ett kort- och långsiktigt samband. Resultatet bekräftar reporäntan och disponibel inkomst som två viktiga faktorer för att förklara det långsiktiga sambandet med priserna på småhus i Sverige, tillsammans med ytterligare faktorer såsom BNP, hushållens skuldsättning och arbetslösheten. På kort sikt är dels den historiska utvecklingen av huspriserna en nyckelfaktor, men faktorer som disponibel inkomst, ränta, BNP och hushållens skuldsättning är också viktiga krafter för att förklara småhuspriserna.

Undersökning av modulationsscheman för existerande bredbandsteknologier

In this thesis some different modulation schemes for xDSL-techniques are compared. The investigated techniques are ADSL, G.lite, ADSL2, HDSL, SHDSL and VDSL. The modulation methods used are DMT, CAP and different versions of PAM. Several broadband techniques also use Trellis Coded Modulation (TCM) to increase the coding gain of the transmission. For each one of the different modulation methods the signal-to-noise ratio is calculated for generating a bit error rate probability of 10-7.

Sambandet mellan förändringar i fonders portföljsammansättning och prestation : Effekten av ett nytt aktivitetsmått

Tidigare forskning är inte enig om aktivt förvaltade fonder presterar bättre eller sämre än index. Då hänsyn inte tas till olika nivåer av aktivitet tycks de flesta studier visa att aktiv förvaltning är en förlustaffär för fondsparare. Vi introducerar ett nytt mått på aktivitet, aktivitetsgrad, som utgår från de åtgärder förvaltaren vidtar. Aktivitetsgraden definieras av mängden och storleken på förändringar i portföljsammansättningen som sker under ett kvartal. Vi undersöker aktivitetsgraden hos 22 svenska småbolagsfonder mellan 2008 och 2013 och finner att de flesta fonder har en låg aktivitetsgrad.

DREAM : Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method

Den här uppsatsen handlar om trafiksäkerhet och, mer specifikt, den mänskliga faktorns inverkan vid olyckor och incidenter. Arbetet är skrivet inom FICA- projeketet, vars målsättning är att förstå förarbeteende för att kunna utveckla aktiv säkerhetsteknologi för fordon. I första delen (kapitel 2?6) presenteras ett teoretiskt ramverk för att förstå förarbeteende i olika kontexter. I andra delen (kapitel 7?8) redovisas en metod för att analysera olycks- och incidentförlopp, kallad DREAM ? Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method.

FPGA-design av en STDM-baserad multiplexer för seriell multiprotokollskommunikation

The remotely operated underwater vehicles that the client develops have needs of different kinds of data channels. In order to minimize the need of physical cable between the control unit and a ROV, a multiplex protocol has been developed. The protocol has been designed with the aim of using the bandwidth of the transferring link as efficient as possible.The different kinds of data channels used during this thesis project is; RS232, RS485 and CAN. ROM and FIFO-memories have been used to be able to effectively manage the different data channels. All the reading and sending of these channels have been implemented in FPGA-technology, the coding is made generic so that it will be easier to add more channels to the system in the future.The multiplex protocol is a modified version of the method STDM and it is a proprietary protocol.

Reducering av ledtider samt framtagande av kalkylmodell

Rimaster Kisa AB is a member of the Rimaster Group, the corporation was bought from Samhall AB in January 2007. The corporation is producing mechanichs needed by the Rimaster group as well for external costumers. Samhall AB is now functioning as a provider of labor for Rimaster Kisa, as the company is hiring personnel from Samhall AB. The company has earlier have had problems with their lead times being far too long. This has resulted in that the management decided to invest in a new edging press.

Vad bestämmer fonders prestation och avgift? : En studie på svenska aktivt förvaltade aktiefonder under perioden 2005-2014

This study analyzes 66 Swedish actively managed mutual funds investing in the Swedish stock market during the period 2005-2014. The purpose is through pooled data regressions analyze the relationship between both the mutual fund?s annual fee and risk-adjusted return to the fund?s characteristics. The characteristics of the study are the size of the fund's assets, age, if the fund is bank managed or not, Tracking Error, and standard deviation of return.By using the performance measures of CAPM, Fama and French 3-factor model, and Carhart?s 4-factor model monthly risk-adjusted returns are created for all funds over the period.

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