Är det lönsamt att ta hänsyn till temperatursvängningar?
En fallstudie om prognostisering på Karlstads Energi
Being able to predict the future had been an invaluable competitive advantage for any corporation. Forecasting is a vital part of any business, hence a good forecast allows enterprises to invest in a beneficial way. However, there are several ways to prepare forecasts and the forecast methodology can vary. An industry that is dependent on forecasts is the energy industry. By predicting consumers' energy consumption, Swedish energy companies can hedge on the Nordic power market Nord Pool. To know how much volume to hedge, the most accurate forecast possible is needed.A tool used for forecasting in the energy market is normal correction with degree days. The method aims to neutralize the effects of temperature on energy consumption and allows the actors in the electricity trade to see how the energy usage looks like if the weather is considered "normal". The method unfortunately has a couple of pitfalls, and should therefore be evaluated before it is implemented.This study has evaluated whether normal correction method with degree days should be implemented in a case study at Karlstad Energi. The results show that the method does not improve the forecast and the conclusion is that the method should not be implemented.Key words: Business forecasting, Nord Pool, Future, Forward