Riskpremien, vad ska man tro?
En studie med facit i hand
Business studiesRiskRisk premiumEquity risk premiumMarket risk premiumCAPMRisk premium ex postRisk premium ex anteImplied risk premiumForward looking risk premiumSwedish risk premiumFöretagsekonomiRiskRiskpremieHistorisk riskpremieFramåtblickande riskpremie
The market risk premium is one of the most important parameters in finance. Its value and the ways to calculate a risk premium for the market is a widely debated subject. This thesis examines numerous ways of calculating a risk premium for the Swedish market with regard to how good an estimation they make of a real risk premium. Estimations based on historical periods ranging from 20 to 85 years is calculated as well as a premium based on forward-looking estimates. The real risk premium is solved out for a selection of companies and an index with the help of CAPM. An examination of these estimates leads to the conclusion that historical estimates of a risk premium may be outdated. The implication of this is that more effort should be put into examining a risk premium based on forward-looking estimates. In this context a thorough analysis of fundamentals should be added into the calculation.