Prognoser av räntabilitet på eget kapital - En studie av hur Re-prognoser påverkas vid en uppdelning av hävstångsformelns komponenter
Forecasting is an important part in attempting to predict how companies will perform in the future. The more accurate the prediction, the more valuable are the results obtained from the forecast. This thesis aims to investigate forecasts of return on equity, and whether a disaggregation of the leverage formula into its underlying components affects the forecasting ability positively. This is conducted by comparing a model based on the leverage formula's components with a model solely based on return on equity from previous years. The study includes manufacturing companies on the Swedish Stock Exchange over the period 1998-2011. The results show that a disaggregation of the leverage formula generates more precise forecasting results when non-parametric tests are conducted. However, this is not true when parametric tests are applied. Therefore, the results are ambiguous and, overall, it is not possible to conclude that a disaggregation of the leverage formula provides better forecasting results than simply taking previous years' return on equity into account.