Norge - finansieringen av den åldrande befolkningen
OljaDemografiPensionNorgeåldrande befolkningEconomicsEconometricsEconomic theoryEconomic systemsEconomic policyNationalekonomiEkonometriEkonomisk teoriEkonomiska systemEkonomisk politikBusiness and Economics
As most developed countries Norway has an ageing population meaning that the number of pensioners is predicted to grow rapidly over the coming years. As a consequence the Norwegian pension system will not be able to provide for these future pensioners. Meanwhile, a rising number of early retirees and disability pension claimants is diminishing the real retirement age. Also the individual pension amount is growing while the pension system itself reaches maturity. In short, major reforms are needed in the Norwegian pension system. A frequent suggestion within the Norwegian economic debate is to use the oil revenues to cover the rising costs of the pension system. Today, oil capital is saved in a government fund from which only the real return is taken and implemented in the state budget. To use the capital itself would not be a sustainable policy since the demographic change is structural and such a method would therefore leave Norway with a lack of revenue when Norway?s oil reserves have been depleted. This thesis aims to present alternatives for financing the Norwegian pension system. The tools for change are the pension tax, retirement age and, indirectly, the size of the pensions. The measure is the relative size of an average pension from an average wage predicted over time. The result showed that the cost of the current system would rise rapidly. The thesis suggests minor changes in all variables instead of making a drastic change in one minimizing the need of reform of each variable. In reality, the implications are an increase in taxes and raising the retirement age. It is also important to give these reforms teeth in order to minimize the numbers of early retirees and disability pension claimants. This is obtainable primarily by increasing economic boundaries between work income and pensions.