Fordonsbestånd och nyregistreringar - en statistisk analys av regionala skillnader och strukturella faktorer
Longitudinal dataRegression analysisStatisticsOperations researchProgrammingActuarial mathematicsStatistikOperationsanalysProgrammeringAktuariematematikMathematics and Statistics
The official statistics on communication and transports in Sweden is administered by Statens Institut för kommunikationsanalys (SIKA). SIKA?s commission includes production of statistics on the Swedish vehicle fleet. These statistics provide important information tofinancial institutes, ministries, industry and mass media among others. Furthermore, the vehicle statistics include measures of comparison between different counties and municipalities. These regional measures suggest large differences concerning the number ofpassenger cars per inhabitant and registered passenger cars per inhabitant in different regions. SIKA has had a number of inquires seeking an explanation to these differences. The objectives of this study are; i) to examine regional differences in the number of passenger cars per inhabitant ii) to investigate and present factors that influence the number of passenger cars per inhabitant and to compose an adequate statistical model iii) to examine regional differences in the number of newly registered passenger cars per year and inhabitant iv) to investigate and present factors that influence the number of newly registered passenger carsper year and inhabitant and to compose an adequate statistical model. The study makes us of a wide spectrum of demographic-, economic-, social- and infrastructural explaining variables. Most of the variables are acquired from Sveriges kommuner och landsting´s classification of municipalities. The study shows that the main differences in passenger cars per inhabitant exist between major cities and more sparsely populated areas. The major cities show a significantly lowernumber of passenger cars per inhabitant than other areas of the country. A polynomial regression model suggests that a higher proportion of inhabitants in the age intervals 35 ? 44 and 55 ? 64 and a higher proportion of detached housing have a positive effect on the number of passenger cars per inhabitant. The availability of public transport has a negative effect on the number of passenger cars per inhabitant. Furthermore, the study shows that suburban municipalities have a higher number of newly registered passenger cars per year and inhabitant than other municipalities. Sparsely populatedmunicipalities prove to have a lower number of newly registered passenger cars than other municipalities. A two-sided panel data model with fixed effects shows that mean income, employment, proportion of commuters, the proportion of inhabitants in the age interval 15 ? 44 and the number of passenger cars per inhabitant are positively associated with the number of newly registered passenger cars per year and inhabitant.