Analyzing the future of technology and society. Scania and the case of the Russian fuel market.
ScaniaFuelRussiaFUTSTEPS methodMICMAC methodScenario-based techniquesTechnology and societySocio-technical systemsManagementFöretagsledningManagement of enterprisesBusiness and Economics
Issue of study: The development of technology and society is closely linked. Mutual dependency and complex interrelationships make straightforward analysis of issues regarding the future of technology and society hard to perform. Therefore, the study addresses the question of how organizations should describe and analyze the interactions of technology and society in order to gain a better understanding of what the future may bring. Purpose: ? To develop a method for analysis of the future course of issues regarding technology and society in interaction.? To apply and test the developed method through a case study, where it is used to analyze the future of the Russian fuel market. Method: In the study, a holistic systems approach is applied. Through combining theory about socio-technical systems with elements from scenario-based techniques, the FUTSTEPS method is developed. The socio-technical systems theory is used to understand and structure the complex interactions of technology and society. The scenario-based techniques form the basis of the developed FUTSTEPS method, which enables a systematic description, analysis, and presentation of empirical data in relevant issues regarding the future of technology and society. The FUTSTEPS method is applied and tested in a case study of the Russian fuel market. Conclusions: The FUTSTEPS method is a tool for finding the most important factors determining an issue involving technology and society. The developed theoretical framework connects socio-technical systems to scenario-based techniques, thus filling the latter with structured content. The FUTSTEPS method allows for a more formalized and rigorous step-by-step construction of scenarios for issues regarding the future of technology and society than previous techniques. It can be used for analysis of a range of complex multiparty issues. The case study showed that the four most important fuels for the future in Russia are CNG, diesel, DME, and E-fuels. The constructed extreme scenarios connected each fuel to a certain development of society. Among the identified key factors, the development in the European Union and Asian countries, together with the level of Russian protectionism, were found to have the largest impact on the future course. In order to anticipate what the future will bring, Scania should monitor five of the key factors and conduct additional research in five key areas of knowledge.