Value-at-Risk (VaR) is among financial institutions a commonly used tool for measuring market risk. Several methods to calculate VaR exists and different implementations often results in different VaR forecasts. An interesting implementation is historical simulation, and the purpose of this thesis is to examine whether historical simulation with dynamic volatility updating is useful as a model to calculate VaR and how this differs in regard to type of asset or instrument. To carry out the investigation six different models are implemented, which then are tested for statistical accuracy through Christoffersens test. We find that incorporation of volatility updating into the historical simulation method in many cases improves the model.

Developed model for easier animal welfare assessment- with examples from dairy cows in loose housingAnimals in captivity are completely dependent on human care. If captive animals are prevented from exhibiting their natural behavior, they may suffer. Animal welfare inspectors, who insure that the animal welfare legislation is followed, use a checklist to assess the situation in the husbandry. This checklist contains only two levels of assessment, which may result in a lack of detail in the assessment of the husbandry. The objective of this report was to develop a more detailed model that provides an overview of the situation in husbandry.

Due to the forest industry downsizing, many communities in rural forest regions in Canada and Sweden are facing problems to survive. In order to create community sustainability, resilience and well-being in remote forest regions, the view on the forest resources has shifted towards multiple use, through the concept of sustainable forest management (SFM). Beside the economic and ecological elements of sustainability, the social forest values are needed, contributing to the human well-being, local participation, stakeholder collaboration, human rights and cultural connection. In this thesis the embodiment of the social component of SFM within Prince Albert Model Forest (Canada), and Vilhelmina Model Forest (Sweden) will be examined. Being partners and facing similar challenges as rural boreal forest regions, the two model forests are compared through analysis of projects and activities, conducted interviews and organization documents. Looking at projects mentioned as successful by the interviewees, they all have elements from the social values of SFM. The direction can be explained by the introduction of the Forest Communities Program in Canada, demanding the Model Forests to work towards community stability and resilience, the Model Forest organization concept itself and the way global focus are increasing around social forest values. In the future, it may be important that the role of the MFs enable some kind of political authorization and legitimacy in order to improve conflict solving and indigenous rights equality.

Making accurate predictions of private consumption expenditures is a difficult task. This thesis examines if consumer confidence can be used to forecast consumption. Using regression analysis, the link between consumer confidence and private consumption expenditures is analyzed for Sweden between the years 1994 and 2005. Two different models are estimated. In the first model consumption is regressed only on consumer confidence, while model two is extended to contain more variables.

During the past few years a vast amount of research has been done to increase the understanding of the complex ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Modelling and simulations are important tools to increase knowledge of the system. A suitable model must be simple to use and the parameters and variables needed in the model must be easy to access.In this paper a dynamical mass-balance model, CoastMab, which is validated for smaller coastal areas, has been used to predict concentrations and transports of phosphorus in three large coastal areas - the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Gdansk and the Gulf of Riga. CoastMab uses ordinary differential equations to regulate inflow, outflow and internal flows. To reflect seasonal variations in temperature and different types of flows the model has a temporal resolution of a month.

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the European Union (EU) is one of the oldest fields of cooperation within the European Union. During the past decades the different Commissioners have made several proposals about changes in the CAP and many of them have not been passed but renegotiated. The present Commission has however published a report in 2011, which emphasizes that the CAP has three alternative ways to go in the future. This study aims to predict which one of these three alternative ways it is most likely that the CAP will take according to the historical institutionalist theory. When to be able to predict this text analysis is used.

The United Nations has, during many years, developed a model for a globally harmonized system for classification and labeling of chemicals, with the aim of it becoming a global standard. This system is implemented in the European Union through the CLP-regulation and is now working parallel to the existing directives until 1st of June 2015, when all the new classifications of substances and mixtures must be completed. The aim of this project was to adjust the laboratory to the new legislation, through inventory of stored chemicals, update the list of chemicals and perform self-classifications of mixtures. The work included handling of about 650 different chemicals with varying hazard classifications and search for information in corporate websites and chemical databases. This resulted in a new and complete list of chemicals stored and used in the laboratory and, in addition, an example of how to make a self classification of a mixture.

The United Nations has, during many years, developed a model for a globally harmonized system for classification and labeling of chemicals, with the aim of it becoming a global standard. This system is implemented in the European Union through the CLP-regulation and is now working parallel to the existing directives until 1st of June 2015, when all the new classifications of substances and mixtures must be completed. The aim of this project was to adjust the laboratory to the new legislation, through inventory of stored chemicals, update the list of chemicals and perform self-classifications of mixtures. The work included handling of about 650 different chemicals with varying hazard classifications and search for information in corporate websites and chemical databases. This resulted in a new and complete list of chemicals stored and used in the laboratory and, in addition, an example of how to make a self classification of a mixture.

The ISO standard ISO/IEC 17799/SS-627799-2 is a guidance for organizations to realize their information security goals. In spite of this standard, studies show flaws regarding information security in organizations. In particular flaws regarding overall view, knowledge and clear roles and responsibilities have been observed. The ISIT (Information Security Integrated Three level) model and its guidelines, developed in this thesis, help organizations to identify the required processes and procedures as well as the logical process flow. The thesis is based on theoretical studies and a case study within a multinational company.

Background: Climate changes are a growing concern all over the world today. In June year 2006 the European Union accepted a new strategy for the Unions work against a sustainable development. The concept of taking consideration to all the aspects of an organisations/a company's activity is something that have been in focus during later years. Social and ethical aspects are in focus and questions regarding these aspects are more commonly included in the companies yearly reporting. A sustainability report is characterised by that it takes into account not only environmental aspects, like ordinary environmental reports, but also social and ethical aspects of a company's activity with it's surroundings.

This thesis project focuses on the need for better tools for analyzing competition for forest fuels in Sweden, in particular how policy measures may influence the market and involved actors in different regions of Sweden. Raw materials from the forest have for long constituted important inputs in the Swedish forest industry. Today some of these raw materials are increasingly used as inputs also in bioenergy production, largely driven by bioenergy promoting policies, and there are signs of increased competition for forest fuels which may have various and uncertain effects on the industries in question. The thesis project explores the possibilities to adapt previously used forest sector equilibrium models into a new model suitable for analysis of Swedish forest fuel markets, called the Swedish Forest Sector Trade Model (SFSTM). The approach takes into account regional differences in supply and demand for 23 types of products produced and/or used by eight types of producers, plus consumers, in five different regions (four Swedish and one international).

The aim of this study is to investigate the situation in Romania concerning trafficking for sexual purposes. We look at what affect the European Union has had relating to this matter, in order to conclude what a membership implies on the fight against trafficking. A gender perspective is apparent throughout the essay and new institutionalism leads us to focus on the affect of the EU, both formally and informally. Questions to be answered revolves around the EU:s strategy against trafficking, recent trends and the implementation of the strategy in Romania, formally and informally. The study has the form of a case study and is conducted through a field study in Romania.

In the thesis we have shown that it is possible with current technology, to buildneighborhoods that are largely self-sufficient. We have obtained some information aboutongoing work in the field of energy efficient buildings and active house which we have usedto develop a model. The feasibility study for Ranagård we have e.g been forced tofollow laws on groundwater covered, resulting in the construction of basements for singlefamilyhome is not possible. The model that we have built up overtime has been the central part of the work. The model illustrates very well what an activehouse neighborhood means and potential of such an area.

Since 1928 the Swedish accounting and taxation has been closely linked by law which today as the European Union works with its harmonisation of the European accounting systems brings up difficulties. The Union strives to integrate the countries different ways of accounting in order to make it easier to use and understand foreign information. The Swedish connection between accounting and taxation means that a harmonisation would change the whole system as its known today. The purpose with this study is to examine what the link between the two means and how a decoupling would affect Swedish accounting and auditing. We also want to examine how the Swedish taxation office, who currently uses the accounting as a ground for taxation, could guarantee the quality of the declaration without a proper underpinning. The study shows that a decoupling could lead to an increase in quality on swedish accounting and that the administration would become more difficult to handle. The risk of dividend of untaxed profits is not seen as a problem in this context.

Denna uppsats handlar om ridportens framväxt i Norrbotten. Syftet med denna uppsats är att utifrån ridsportens framväxt i Norrbotten utreda varför ridsporten gick från en mansdominerad sport till en kvinnodominerad sport. Frågeställningarna jag har använt mig av är, när blev ridsporten i Norrbotten en mer utpräglad kvinnosport? Varför, på vilket sätt skedde denna förändring? Vilka drivkrafter fanns det i samhället och i ridsporten för att göra denna förändring? För att få svar på mina frågeställningar har jag använt mig av en kvalitativ samt kvantitativ metod. Resultatet jag kom fram till var att, när försvaret avhästades och blev motoriserat tappade hästen sin status som maktsymbol för männen och samhället började arbeta för att få ridsporten till en civilsport.