Value-at-Risk (VaR) is among financial institutions a commonly used tool for measuring market risk. Several methods to calculate VaR exists and different implementations often results in different VaR forecasts. An interesting implementation is historical simulation, and the purpose of this thesis is to examine whether historical simulation with dynamic volatility updating is useful as a model to calculate VaR and how this differs in regard to type of asset or instrument. To carry out the investigation six different models are implemented, which then are tested for statistical accuracy through Christoffersens test. We find that incorporation of volatility updating into the historical simulation method in many cases improves the model.

Developed model for easier animal welfare assessment- with examples from dairy cows in loose housingAnimals in captivity are completely dependent on human care. If captive animals are prevented from exhibiting their natural behavior, they may suffer. Animal welfare inspectors, who insure that the animal welfare legislation is followed, use a checklist to assess the situation in the husbandry. This checklist contains only two levels of assessment, which may result in a lack of detail in the assessment of the husbandry. The objective of this report was to develop a more detailed model that provides an overview of the situation in husbandry.

Due to the forest industry downsizing, many communities in rural forest regions in Canada and Sweden are facing problems to survive. In order to create community sustainability, resilience and well-being in remote forest regions, the view on the forest resources has shifted towards multiple use, through the concept of sustainable forest management (SFM). Beside the economic and ecological elements of sustainability, the social forest values are needed, contributing to the human well-being, local participation, stakeholder collaboration, human rights and cultural connection. In this thesis the embodiment of the social component of SFM within Prince Albert Model Forest (Canada), and Vilhelmina Model Forest (Sweden) will be examined. Being partners and facing similar challenges as rural boreal forest regions, the two model forests are compared through analysis of projects and activities, conducted interviews and organization documents. Looking at projects mentioned as successful by the interviewees, they all have elements from the social values of SFM. The direction can be explained by the introduction of the Forest Communities Program in Canada, demanding the Model Forests to work towards community stability and resilience, the Model Forest organization concept itself and the way global focus are increasing around social forest values. In the future, it may be important that the role of the MFs enable some kind of political authorization and legitimacy in order to improve conflict solving and indigenous rights equality.

Making accurate predictions of private consumption expenditures is a difficult task. This thesis examines if consumer confidence can be used to forecast consumption. Using regression analysis, the link between consumer confidence and private consumption expenditures is analyzed for Sweden between the years 1994 and 2005. Two different models are estimated. In the first model consumption is regressed only on consumer confidence, while model two is extended to contain more variables.

During the past few years a vast amount of research has been done to increase the understanding of the complex ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Modelling and simulations are important tools to increase knowledge of the system. A suitable model must be simple to use and the parameters and variables needed in the model must be easy to access.In this paper a dynamical mass-balance model, CoastMab, which is validated for smaller coastal areas, has been used to predict concentrations and transports of phosphorus in three large coastal areas - the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Gdansk and the Gulf of Riga. CoastMab uses ordinary differential equations to regulate inflow, outflow and internal flows. To reflect seasonal variations in temperature and different types of flows the model has a temporal resolution of a month.

The purposes of litteratur review were to describe patients experiences of living with HIV/AIDS and and their expectations when in contact with care/healthcare. As theoretical frame has Antonovsky, A (1991) salutogenic model, sense of coherence been used. After analyzing the content of the litterature it resulted in 5 categories of experiences and 3 categories regarding expectations. The categories that regards experiences were, to feel frustration and dependance, to switch between hope and despair and suicidal thoughts, to be able to cope with the changing self and to feel social support. The categories that regards expectations were, to feel proffessionalism/competence, to get caring treatment and feeling secure, to feel engagement/individuality in caring.

The ISO standard ISO/IEC 17799/SS-627799-2 is a guidance for organizations to realize their information security goals. In spite of this standard, studies show flaws regarding information security in organizations. In particular flaws regarding overall view, knowledge and clear roles and responsibilities have been observed. The ISIT (Information Security Integrated Three level) model and its guidelines, developed in this thesis, help organizations to identify the required processes and procedures as well as the logical process flow. The thesis is based on theoretical studies and a case study within a multinational company.

The farm management system controlled traffic farming (CTF) aims to reduce soil compaction by restricting the field traffic from agricultural machinery to permanent traffic lanes. Literature and empirical findings show that soil compaction and field traffic from heavy machinery may affect crop growth negatively, reducing crop yields. If grass-clover leys are subject to heavy field traffic the botanic composition might be altered, providing a lower clover content in the forage. Clover as a silage feed is rich in protein providing good conditions for high yielding dairy cows. Grass-clover silage production is generally associated with intensive field traffic.

This study?s aim was to explore how the social media Twitter is used by Swedish political leaders and how they manage the relationship between having both private and public conversations in a new public sphere, the social sphere. In Sweden, studies in this area are yet to grow. We achieved our aim by responding to our three questions at the issue: What kind of content is published in each of the politicians Twitter stream? Are the politicians private or public persons on Twitter? Are the politicians using Twitters interactive functions? We conducted our analysis by performing a quantitative content analysis.

This thesis project focuses on the need for better tools for analyzing competition for forest fuels in Sweden, in particular how policy measures may influence the market and involved actors in different regions of Sweden. Raw materials from the forest have for long constituted important inputs in the Swedish forest industry. Today some of these raw materials are increasingly used as inputs also in bioenergy production, largely driven by bioenergy promoting policies, and there are signs of increased competition for forest fuels which may have various and uncertain effects on the industries in question. The thesis project explores the possibilities to adapt previously used forest sector equilibrium models into a new model suitable for analysis of Swedish forest fuel markets, called the Swedish Forest Sector Trade Model (SFSTM). The approach takes into account regional differences in supply and demand for 23 types of products produced and/or used by eight types of producers, plus consumers, in five different regions (four Swedish and one international).

In the thesis we have shown that it is possible with current technology, to buildneighborhoods that are largely self-sufficient. We have obtained some information aboutongoing work in the field of energy efficient buildings and active house which we have usedto develop a model. The feasibility study for Ranagård we have e.g been forced tofollow laws on groundwater covered, resulting in the construction of basements for singlefamilyhome is not possible. The model that we have built up overtime has been the central part of the work. The model illustrates very well what an activehouse neighborhood means and potential of such an area.

A change towards using more biofuels than fossil fuels is taking place in Sweden, and in many other parts of the world. This makes the use of fuel pellets increasingly popular, causing a greater demand for sawmill sawdust products. There is a trend towards the use of multiple types of shredders, instead of a single type in each sawmill. The purpose of the study was to characterize the different flows of saw particles that can be found at Sävar såg when cutting thick or thin wood with different cutting techniques. The saw particles size, shape, moisture content and heat value were analysed by the cutting stations: first cutting fast and slow, second cutting fast and slow, grading fast and slow and planning.

The aim of this study was to investigate how the content of the syllabus for Physical Education and Health at Uppsala University correlates to selected parts of the core content of the Gy11 syllabus for Physical Education and Health 1 in Upper Secondary School. Furthermore we aimed to investigate the perceived competency of recently graduated and still studying teachers of Physical Education and Health within the selected parts of the core content.The selected parts of the core content are:Exercise, sports and outdoor activities that develop a comprehensive physical abilityThe adjustment of tension and mental training.The methods used were a qualitative comparative text analysis of the syllabuses for Physical Education and Health at Uppsala University and Gy11 Physical Education and Health 1 in Upper Secondary School, as well as a quantitative survey conducted with recently graduated and still studying teachers of Physical Education and Health.The results were that there is an obvious correlation between the content of the syllabus for Physical Education and Health at Uppsala University and the Gy11 syllabus for Physical Education and Health 1 in Upper Secondary School. Moreover the survey shows that the respondents felt confidence in their ability to teach exercise, sports and outdoor activities that develop a comprehensive physical ability. The survey also shows that the respondents felt less confidence in their ability to teach the adjustment of tension and mental training..

This study was made on former agricultural areas that had been planted with spruce or pine, in the county of Västerbotten. The goal of the project was to investigate suspected deficiency of boron in these areas. Several objects have been reported for possible deficiency and some of these have the characteristic symptoms of boron-deficiency. The hypotheses are that 1) Boron deficiency is present at several of the investigated objects. 2) Planting of forest on cultivated postglacial sediments leads to a successive podzolisation with a decreasing content of organic matter in the mineral soil, due to decomposition, and a decreasing pH in the soil, even on locations that have been added lime. To be able to confirm or reject the hypotheses a number of tests were performed.

AbstractIn this thesis we aim to extend the current theories about a concept called persona. A persona is a model of a user, mostly based on qualitative research and made with such accuracy that it to some extent can be used as a replacement of a real user in a development process and as a communicative tool. We will present a way of constructing this persona without meeting the actual users and follow up with interviews from the organization using them. This will lead to a model over the process of introducing personas as a concept in an organization,previously not familiar with the concept. The model is adapted to also work for projects and organizations where the concept is already known..