Value-at-Risk (VaR) is among financial institutions a commonly used tool for measuring market risk. Several methods to calculate VaR exists and different implementations often results in different VaR forecasts. An interesting implementation is historical simulation, and the purpose of this thesis is to examine whether historical simulation with dynamic volatility updating is useful as a model to calculate VaR and how this differs in regard to type of asset or instrument. To carry out the investigation six different models are implemented, which then are tested for statistical accuracy through Christoffersens test. We find that incorporation of volatility updating into the historical simulation method in many cases improves the model.

Developed model for easier animal welfare assessment- with examples from dairy cows in loose housingAnimals in captivity are completely dependent on human care. If captive animals are prevented from exhibiting their natural behavior, they may suffer. Animal welfare inspectors, who insure that the animal welfare legislation is followed, use a checklist to assess the situation in the husbandry. This checklist contains only two levels of assessment, which may result in a lack of detail in the assessment of the husbandry. The objective of this report was to develop a more detailed model that provides an overview of the situation in husbandry.

Making accurate predictions of private consumption expenditures is a difficult task. This thesis examines if consumer confidence can be used to forecast consumption. Using regression analysis, the link between consumer confidence and private consumption expenditures is analyzed for Sweden between the years 1994 and 2005. Two different models are estimated. In the first model consumption is regressed only on consumer confidence, while model two is extended to contain more variables.

During the past few years a vast amount of research has been done to increase the understanding of the complex ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Modelling and simulations are important tools to increase knowledge of the system. A suitable model must be simple to use and the parameters and variables needed in the model must be easy to access.In this paper a dynamical mass-balance model, CoastMab, which is validated for smaller coastal areas, has been used to predict concentrations and transports of phosphorus in three large coastal areas - the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Gdansk and the Gulf of Riga. CoastMab uses ordinary differential equations to regulate inflow, outflow and internal flows. To reflect seasonal variations in temperature and different types of flows the model has a temporal resolution of a month.

AbstractAuthors: Carolina Magnusson and Johanna MagnussonTitle:  The balance between research and practice. A study of family therapist?s knowledge retrieval and the application of evidence-based practice.Supervisor: Jan Petersson Assessor: Peter HultgrenDuring our research we discovered that a very small amount of research had been conducted about the effect of the social services. It inspired us to fulfill this study. The aim of the study is to describe and analyze what knowledge family therapists in two Swedish municipalities use in family therapy work.

When Sweden acceded to the European Union in 1995 the term social economy was introduced to the Swedish context, gradually replacing the term civil society. This replacement can be seen as an indicator of a changing meaning of what the concept of civil society used to stand for.The aim of this essay is to study if it is possible to identify changing perceptions of the role of civil society for democracy in Sweden in government bills between 2002 and 2008, and, if so, what effect does this have on the delineation between the civil society and the government.An analytical model is proposed consisting of two dimensions which both capture the roles of civil society for democracy and the model examines how those roles relate to the government.The conclusion is that the government still sees the main function of civil society as a democratic school and a change agent for democracy. However, there is strong evidence to suggest that the civil society is increasingly regarded as more of a welfare producer than a fosterer of democracy..

The ISO standard ISO/IEC 17799/SS-627799-2 is a guidance for organizations to realize their information security goals. In spite of this standard, studies show flaws regarding information security in organizations. In particular flaws regarding overall view, knowledge and clear roles and responsibilities have been observed. The ISIT (Information Security Integrated Three level) model and its guidelines, developed in this thesis, help organizations to identify the required processes and procedures as well as the logical process flow. The thesis is based on theoretical studies and a case study within a multinational company.

This thesis project focuses on the need for better tools for analyzing competition for forest fuels in Sweden, in particular how policy measures may influence the market and involved actors in different regions of Sweden. Raw materials from the forest have for long constituted important inputs in the Swedish forest industry. Today some of these raw materials are increasingly used as inputs also in bioenergy production, largely driven by bioenergy promoting policies, and there are signs of increased competition for forest fuels which may have various and uncertain effects on the industries in question. The thesis project explores the possibilities to adapt previously used forest sector equilibrium models into a new model suitable for analysis of Swedish forest fuel markets, called the Swedish Forest Sector Trade Model (SFSTM). The approach takes into account regional differences in supply and demand for 23 types of products produced and/or used by eight types of producers, plus consumers, in five different regions (four Swedish and one international).

The aim of this study is to map the consumption patterns of the poor. We also examine if loyalty can be created in this segment, and try to discover different types of poverty. This study is of great importance since the poor segment has been slightly overlooked in marketing research. Therefore we have also turned to other academic disciplines such as sociology, ethnography and consumer culture in order to analyze our empirical input. The study is abductive and we have in a qualitative and ethnographical manner conducted interviews in order to obtain information and reveal categories.

In the thesis we have shown that it is possible with current technology, to buildneighborhoods that are largely self-sufficient. We have obtained some information aboutongoing work in the field of energy efficient buildings and active house which we have usedto develop a model. The feasibility study for Ranagård we have e.g been forced tofollow laws on groundwater covered, resulting in the construction of basements for singlefamilyhome is not possible. The model that we have built up overtime has been the central part of the work. The model illustrates very well what an activehouse neighborhood means and potential of such an area.

Syfte och frågeformuleringarUppsatsens syfte är att undersöka om Dunn & Dunns Learning Style Model kan vara en metod som är skolutvecklande samt om modellen möjliggör att elever motiveras och engageras i sina gymnasiestudier.Frågor:- Ger arbete utifrån Dunn & Dunns Learning Style Model möjlighet till skolutveckling?- Hur uppfattar eleverna lärstilsarbete, utifrån Dunn & Dunns Learning Style Model?- Skapar modellen inlärningsmöjligheter, engagemang, förståelse och motivation?MetodUndersökningen är kvalitativ, där datainsamlingsmetoden består av öppna frågor i en enkät. Nittio elever besvarade enkäten. Genom systematiskt urval plockades därefter trettio enkäter ut och bildade den undersökningsgrupp som uppsatsens resultatdel bygger på. I resultatet behandlas och grupperas de åsikter som eleverna gett uttryck för.ResultatResultatet av elevenkäten visar att arbete utifrån Dunn & Dunns lärstilsmetod är en möjlig väg för skolutveckling.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine how social workers perceive the concept of knowledge within social services, particularly within children and youth services. Our goal is also to study the employer's expectations and demands on graduate social workers. The main questions we address in this thesis are; What knowledge is seen as useful by employers and graduate social workers working in social welfare offices? To what extent does university education bring useful knowledge to the work being done by social workers? What practical knowledge is there in the workplace for social workers to learn? When recruiting, what expectations does the employer have of graduate social workers? What challenges are there with recruiting a graduate social worker?We have interviewed six social workers and four employers in the social childcare division in different municipalities in Skåne region, Sweden. We have used epistemology in our analysis.

AbstractIn this thesis we aim to extend the current theories about a concept called persona. A persona is a model of a user, mostly based on qualitative research and made with such accuracy that it to some extent can be used as a replacement of a real user in a development process and as a communicative tool. We will present a way of constructing this persona without meeting the actual users and follow up with interviews from the organization using them. This will lead to a model over the process of introducing personas as a concept in an organization,previously not familiar with the concept. The model is adapted to also work for projects and organizations where the concept is already known..

Students who regularly cause trouble in school, how can they learn anything? That is what we asked ourselves after having visited a special school for ?troublesome students? (in Swedish resursskola). Our main purpose has been to find out how these students have experienced the help they have been given in those schools.We have interviewed students, parents and a social worker in order to find out if the alternative pedagogical methods used by those schools give the students better opportunities to perform their schoolwork. The interviews have been made two or three years after the end of their studies in compulsory school (grade 9). We have used a qualitative method with semi structured interviews and also an evaluation model.

With background in the rapidly growing need to find solutions for sustainable energy production and the increasing interest for wind power, this report was written. With take-off point from the wind power plant Big Glenn, which has been built in the harbour of Gothenburg, a model of the adjacent power grid has been created in Simulink/SimPowerSystems. Parameters for the power grid and its components has been provided by Göteborg Energi Nät, that has also been the supplier of measurement data of produced power, the power need from loads in the vicinity, voltage levels, current values and also the variation of power factor at the wind power plant.The SimPowerSystems model has been used to perform simulations of power flow in the grid. These simulated values have then been compared to the measured values to verify the functionality of the model. Further, the model has been used to perform simulations of a grid fault, which causes a voltage drop.