2707 Uppsatser om Real exchange rate - Sida 1 av 181
Stabil växelkurs och låg inflation - Inbördes oförenliga? En studie av implikationerna av en real appreciering
This paper examines a long run macroeconomic dilemma. This dilemma states that given a real appreciation, i.e. a continuous increase in the Real exchange rate, an economy has two options open with respect to inflation and nominal exchange rate. Either the economy chooses a fixed exchange rate- regime but has to allow for a rising inflation. Or the economy can choose an inflation targeting- regime, but then has to allow for an appreciating nominal exchange rate.
This paper evaluates the effect of exchange rate risk on the sum of bilateral trade. To distinguish the effect between different types of countries, two groups are defined: advanced and developing economies. Economic theory on exchange rate risk and trade proposes ambiguous effects of increased volatility. However, the ex ante hypothesis is that developing economies are more sensitive to volatility. Contrarily to the hypothesis, the empirical results suggest that advanced economies would benefit up to twice as much from a removal of exchange rate risk.
This thesis aims to evaluate the concept of Uncovered Interest Parity. The parity states that the logarithmic difference between domestic and foreign interest rate equals the logarithmic difference between expected future spot exchange rate and the spot exchange rate, . In defining the exchange rate it is often presumed that the parity relation prevails even though several studies suggest the opposite. Numerous economists maintain that the theory?s shortcomings can be explained through the existence of a Risk Premium.
The purpose of this paper is to apply the Dual-Effect hypothesis in Pritmani, Shome and Singal paper (2003), in order to analyze the exchange rate exposure on firms listed on the U.K. market. The study will examine if the foreign involvement of the firm will affect the share price of the firm.In addition to evaluating the Dual-Effect hypothesis in Pritmani et. al. (2003), we will evaluate the effect of foreign interest rates impact on U.K.
This paper presents empirical evidence on the determinants of interest rate swap spreads in Sweden during the period 1999-2003. The results suggest that the spread between STIBOR and the general collateral repo rate is positively related to shorter maturity swap spreads. The risk premium associated with commercial bonds is positively related to swap spreads of all maturities. A negative relationship is observed between the term structure of interest rates and swap spreads. The short-term interest rate is positively related to spreads with shorter maturities.
The forecast ability of four well-known exchange rate models for theSwedish krona is tested in this thesis. The models that are tested arethe purchase power parity, the real interest differential model, thesticky-price model and a productivity model. In addition to thebenchmark, the random walk, they are also compared to each other.They are all tested on three different horizons one quarter, two quartersand four quarters. The mean squared forecast error criteria and thedirection of change criteria are used for evaluation of the forecastability. Only in a couple of cases are the forecast ability of thetheoretical based models significant better than the random walk..
I en värld av makroekonomisk osäkerhet - En scenarioanalys kring ränte- och inflationsförändringars inverkan på ett fastighetsbolags fria kassaflöde
Title: Valuing Real Estate FCFE and interest coverage under macroeconomic uncertainty with scenario analysisAuthors: Marcus Ewerstrand, Jakob MattssonAdvisor: Gert SandahlBackground and problem: After the collapse in the Swedish economy in the beginning of the 1990-ties, the company Secerum was launched. Securums objective was to handle unsecured credits from Nordbanken by transferring a large portfolio of properties and to setup a number of companies who would be in charge for the prospects of these assets. One company that was established during this remarkable period was Castellum, in the year of 1994. After a successful process of raising capital to its development of corporate strategies and formation of several affiliated companies which operates locally, Castellum was publish on the Stockholm stock exchange 1997/1998. Now, thirteen years later after its establishment, the credit crunch in the US.
Tourism is often being viewed as one of the worlds largest sectors and a great contribution to growth and development. There is a large motivation amongst developing countries to promote themselves as a tourist destination, since they expect the tourism to generate economic growth. The government of Thailand has been promoting tourism since 1960, and the number of foreign visitors has increased from 100 000 back then to 13.5 million in 2006. The purpose of this paper was to investigate weather the increasing tourism industry in Thailand has pulled resources away from other sectors of the economy towards the tourism sector, and in that way harming Thailand?s international competitiveness and causing deindustrialization.
The aim of our master thesis is to study the way valuation of real estate is conducted by real estate companies. Furthermore we want to identify the factors that affect the relevance and reliability of the valuation. The reason for this is the introduction of IFRS, in 2005, and the application of the IAS 40 rules stating that real estate are to be recognized at fair value on the balance sheet. To do this we have performed a case study on 10 Swedish real estate compa-nies listed on the Stockholm stock exchange, OMX, Large Cap and Mid Cap list to see how the share value has performed in relation to the reported net asset value since 2005 and how they value their collection of properties. We also studied the assumptions made by real estate company analysts.
Hur ser börsnoterade fastighetsbolag på vakans : En undersökning av den kommersiellafastighetsmarknaden
The commercial real estate market makes up a large part of Sweden's property portfolio, as well as other open, free markets in the real estate market it is regulated by supply and demand. There are several factors that affect the supply and demand in the commercial real estate market, for instance the price, type of real estate and the condition of the real estate. In order to achieve success in the commercial real estate market it requires that real estate agents have a certain expertise and flexibility in their thinking to adapt commercial real estates to supply and demand. Active investors on the commercial real estate market are for instance private real estate agents, their knowledge and experience will help increase the value of commercial real estate in the long run. In order to provide the market flexibility in its real estate portfolio, vacancy is a factor that can be used.
Hur påverkas aktiemarknaden av räntan, valuta- och obligationsmarknaden? : En empirisk studie under perioden 2005-2009
Introduction: Interplay between all the different subsystems of the financial markets is currently considered as an important internal force in the market. In a financially liberalized economy exchange rate stability is a basis for a wellbeing stock market. If these interactions between all the different subsystems of the financial markets are not detected, this means that there is information inefficiency in the markets.Problem: Can we find any correlation between changes in currency, interest rate and bonds with the stock market index? If so, how do these changes affect the Stockholm Stock Exchange?Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine if there is any linkage between the interest rate, currency and bonds with the stock market. The researchers wanted to find out how these variables affect the stock market index OMX S30 which consists of the 30 largest companies on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.Method: This research has been based on a quantitative approach.
A great number of empirical researches show that hedging is associated with higher firm value, particularly hedging interest rate and exchange rate. However, there is no clear support for value-added risk management hypothesis in the case of producers of commodities. Moreover, according to Shrand and Unal (1997), there are two types of risks, core business risks (or core risk) and homogeneous risks (or non core risks), which are based on a firm's comparative advantages with respects to the source of risk. Firm can earn economic profits for bearing core risks in which it has a comparative information advantage. Firm earn a zero economic rents for bearing non-core risks, where it has no advantage information than its competitors.
Riskpremie i UIP - möjlighet till cross-currency arbitrage? - en jämförande studie av ränta och växelkurs mellan Storbritannien, Tyskland och Sverige.
The thesis explores the Uncovered Interest rate Parity (UIP) and the possibility of cross-currency arbitrage between England, Germany and Sweden. The data is gathered between May 1999 and December 2005 on a monthly basis and is compared using simple regression analysis. The aim is to find out whether UIP holds and, if it does not, a risk premium exists that makes it possible to make arbitrage gains on moving capital between England, Germany and Sweden. It is discovered that UIP does not hold and that cross-currency arbitrage possibilities exist. In the end a an attempt is made to practically show how the arbitrage possibility could be used for a real investor to make risk free gains from the Foreign Exchange market..
In a historical view, house prices have developed at the same rate as inflation. In the end of the 20th century the prices on the housing market started to differ from the inflation rate, and today the deviation is strong and the real price increase has been very strong.The financial crisis in 2008, which was a result of a subprime mortgage crisis on the American real estate market, has made several agents on the housing market in Sweden question today?s prices. Robert Schiller, an American economist who predicted the mortgage crisis in 2008, claimed during the Nobel Prize ceremony 2013, that Sweden shows signs of a financial bubble ? "I think that people here in Sweden have an illusion that increasing prices is a lasting trend, but that is more suggestive of a bubble".
The situation that one can discern on the Swedish real estate market is that while there are several offices vacant, the need for apartments is high ? the vacancy rate for apartments is non-existent. According to the rebuilding of Skatteskrapan one will realise that the project requires a lot of money, even though it promotes the residential situation. The real estate owner experiences a risk in rebuilding real estates ? whether it will generate good yield or not.