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94 Uppsatser om Prediction - Sida 5 av 7
Distribution av sjukvårdens förbrukningsvaror en beskrivning av hur distributionssystemet kan förändras
This master thesis investigates the possibilities of using GPS-information from trains to create a model of a railway system, register the routes of the the trains and predict how the trains will travel in the railway system.The thesis work was done at Icomera AB which is a company that specializes in internet connected vehicle solutions.We describe how the GPS-information is sent from the trains in the form of samples and investigate limitations and possibilities with the available information. About three million samples from 83 SJ-trains were analysed and the samples were filtered with the intent of removing erroneous information. We here found that about 30 % of the samples from the trains were unreliable.A solution for how the samples from the trains can be used to create a model of the railway system traveled by the trains is presented. We use a large set of historical samples and use cluster nodes and Hermite curves to generate a graph that represent the railway system with stations, nodes and the railway itself. A fully automatic solution is not presented since it did not fit into the time frame of the thesis; instead we created a simple tool which can be used to manually finish the model of the railway system.Furthermore, we describe how the railway system and the samples from the train can be used to register the routes the trains travel.
Orsaker till kalvningssvårigheter och dödfödslar hos SLB och SRB
Difficult calvings and stillborn calves are costly for the producer and lowering these frequencies can decrease the costs for the dairy operation. Each calving in the herd is registered by the farmer and stored in a central database. The information is used to monitor the level of calving-difficulties and stillborn calves in the herd and nationally. Monitoring of these registrations is important to detect possible changes. Breeding-value Prediction for calving traits is based on the calving information in the database.
Växelvis boende: Flexibla bostäder för "varannan vecka-familjen"
This master thesis investigates the possibilities of using GPS-information from trains to create a model of a railway system, register the routes of the the trains and predict how the trains will travel in the railway system.The thesis work was done at Icomera AB which is a company that specializes in internet connected vehicle solutions.We describe how the GPS-information is sent from the trains in the form of samples and investigate limitations and possibilities with the available information. About three million samples from 83 SJ-trains were analysed and the samples were filtered with the intent of removing erroneous information. We here found that about 30 % of the samples from the trains were unreliable.A solution for how the samples from the trains can be used to create a model of the railway system traveled by the trains is presented. We use a large set of historical samples and use cluster nodes and Hermite curves to generate a graph that represent the railway system with stations, nodes and the railway itself. A fully automatic solution is not presented since it did not fit into the time frame of the thesis; instead we created a simple tool which can be used to manually finish the model of the railway system.Furthermore, we describe how the railway system and the samples from the train can be used to register the routes the trains travel.
Statistiska metoder för härledning av indata till säkerhetsanalyser inom kärnkraftsområdet
Objective: In recent years there has been an increasing interest within the clinical (medical) science in measuring people?s health. When estimating quality of life, present practise is to use the EQ-5D questionnaire and an index which weighs the different questions. The question is what happens if the individuals estimate there own health, would it differ from the public preferences? The aim is to make a new Prediction model based on the opinion of patients and compare it to the present model based on public preferences.Method: A sample of 362 patients with unstable coronary artery disease from the Frisc II trial, valued their quality of life in the acute phase and after 3, 6 and 12 months.
Analys av trängsel på motorväg: Beräkningsmodeller för medelflöden/medelhastigheter samt utformning av påfartsreglering i Göteborg
This master thesis investigates the possibilities of using GPS-information from trains to create a model of a railway system, register the routes of the the trains and predict how the trains will travel in the railway system.The thesis work was done at Icomera AB which is a company that specializes in internet connected vehicle solutions.We describe how the GPS-information is sent from the trains in the form of samples and investigate limitations and possibilities with the available information. About three million samples from 83 SJ-trains were analysed and the samples were filtered with the intent of removing erroneous information. We here found that about 30 % of the samples from the trains were unreliable.A solution for how the samples from the trains can be used to create a model of the railway system traveled by the trains is presented. We use a large set of historical samples and use cluster nodes and Hermite curves to generate a graph that represent the railway system with stations, nodes and the railway itself. A fully automatic solution is not presented since it did not fit into the time frame of the thesis; instead we created a simple tool which can be used to manually finish the model of the railway system.Furthermore, we describe how the railway system and the samples from the train can be used to register the routes the trains travel.
Saltvattenuppträngning i Göta älv? Inverkan av förhöjd havsvattennivå på råvattenintaget vid Alelyckan
This master thesis investigates the possibilities of using GPS-information from trains to create a model of a railway system, register the routes of the the trains and predict how the trains will travel in the railway system.The thesis work was done at Icomera AB which is a company that specializes in internet connected vehicle solutions.We describe how the GPS-information is sent from the trains in the form of samples and investigate limitations and possibilities with the available information. About three million samples from 83 SJ-trains were analysed and the samples were filtered with the intent of removing erroneous information. We here found that about 30 % of the samples from the trains were unreliable.A solution for how the samples from the trains can be used to create a model of the railway system traveled by the trains is presented. We use a large set of historical samples and use cluster nodes and Hermite curves to generate a graph that represent the railway system with stations, nodes and the railway itself. A fully automatic solution is not presented since it did not fit into the time frame of the thesis; instead we created a simple tool which can be used to manually finish the model of the railway system.Furthermore, we describe how the railway system and the samples from the train can be used to register the routes the trains travel.
Går det att förutspå konkurser? : En jämförelse mellan olika modeller
Bakgrund: Många företag går i konkurs varje år vilket är förknippade med kostnader för de enskilda intressenterna och för samhället i stort. För att kunna vidta eventuella åtgärder innan konkursen är ett faktum är det av intresse att veta om någon av de modeller som forskare tagit fram för att förutspå konkurser faktiskt fungerar.Syfte: Syftet med denna undersökning är att ta reda på om det går att applicera någon av ett urval av etablerade konkursmodeller på svenska industri- och tillverkningsföretag.Teori: Studien kommer att testa tre olika forskares modeller och metoder: Altmans, Platts och Platts samt Pompes och Bilderbeeks.Metod: I denna studie kommer enbart en deduktiv forskningsansats att användas och datainsamlingen är kvantitativ då nyckeltal hämtas från de aktuella företagens årsredovisningar. Urvalet baseras på de företag som ansökte om konkurs under år 2011 och de som representerar kontrollgruppen har slumpmässigt valts ut bland de företag inom avgränsningen som inte gått i konkurs det aktuella året.Resultat och slutsats: Altmans och Platts och Platts modeller visar sig inte vara applicerbara på svenska företag. Dock är vissa av Pompes och Bilderbeeks nyckeltal tillämpliga till att använda för konkursprognostisering för svenska företag..
Grazemore DSS för att prediktera beteskvalitet för mjölkkor :
The aim of this study was to examine if the Predictions of the herbage quality in the software Grazemore Decision Support System (DSS) gives a reliable ground for milk production in the north of Scandinavia.
Pasture samples from one research farm (Umeå) and one organic farm (Nordingrå) was analysed on crude protein and organic matter digestibility. The results were statistically compared to the predicted values. Measured and predicted herbage mass was compared and a control if the Predictions of milk production improved if the predicted input were replaced by the values from the analysis, was made.
The concentration of crude protein was underestimated by the model on both farms and the relationship between actual and predicted values was poor. Mean Prediction Error (MPE) was 24% and 31% respectively.
Spårtaxi i Eskilstuna : vägval och utformning i gaturummet
This master thesis investigates the possibilities of using GPS-information from trains to create a model of a railway system, register the routes of the the trains and predict how the trains will travel in the railway system.The thesis work was done at Icomera AB which is a company that specializes in internet connected vehicle solutions.We describe how the GPS-information is sent from the trains in the form of samples and investigate limitations and possibilities with the available information. About three million samples from 83 SJ-trains were analysed and the samples were filtered with the intent of removing erroneous information. We here found that about 30 % of the samples from the trains were unreliable.A solution for how the samples from the trains can be used to create a model of the railway system traveled by the trains is presented. We use a large set of historical samples and use cluster nodes and Hermite curves to generate a graph that represent the railway system with stations, nodes and the railway itself. A fully automatic solution is not presented since it did not fit into the time frame of the thesis; instead we created a simple tool which can be used to manually finish the model of the railway system.Furthermore, we describe how the railway system and the samples from the train can be used to register the routes the trains travel.
En jämförelse mellan individers självuppskattade livskvalitet och samhällets hälsopreferenser : En paneldatastudie av hjärtpatienter
Objective: In recent years there has been an increasing interest within the clinical (medical) science in measuring people?s health. When estimating quality of life, present practise is to use the EQ-5D questionnaire and an index which weighs the different questions. The question is what happens if the individuals estimate there own health, would it differ from the public preferences? The aim is to make a new Prediction model based on the opinion of patients and compare it to the present model based on public preferences.Method: A sample of 362 patients with unstable coronary artery disease from the Frisc II trial, valued their quality of life in the acute phase and after 3, 6 and 12 months.
Francisella tularensis subspecies holarctica : the curious case of a water- and mosquito associated bacterium in Sweden
Francisella tularensis, the causative agent of the zoonotic disease tularaemia, is highly contagious and potentially fatal for a wide range of wildlife species of the northern
hemisphere, also humans. Although recognized as a pathogen for over 100 years, much still remains to be elucidated concerning the ecology and transmission of the bacterium, hence this literature overview aims at compiling data regarding the aquatic association and the role of
mosquitoes in transmission of Francisella tularensis subspecies holartica, the sole subspecies in Sweden. While a linkage between the bacterium and natural waters stands beyond dispute, there is no consensus in the literature concerning its potential as a reservoir. However, two
prevailing theories can be distinguished; one proposes the water association being mammaldependent and thus merely the result of contamination from semi-aquatic mammals living in
close vicinity to the water source. The other, quite contrary, suggests mammal-independence and hence that water, possibly in association with protozoa, serves as an environmental reservoir for the bacterium.
Utveckling och utvördering av statistiska metoder för att öka träffsäkerheten hos lokala vindprognoser
Wind is used as an energy source all over the world. To be able to use this effectively, there is a need for as good forecasts and forecast models as possible. One of these models is Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) that is used to calculate short time forecasts. This model is used here to calculate wind speeds at two different areas in Västra Götaland, Bengtsfors and Vänersborg. There are also wind measurements with SODAR stations for these areas.
Konkursprediktion med hjälp av finansiella nyckeltal på svenska tillverkande företag
Problem: I dagens Sverige har det blivit ta?mligen enkelt att starta upp ett eget aktiebolag och till fo?ljd av detta har antalet konkurser o?kat. Konkursprediktion med hja?lp av finansiella nyckeltal a?r ett beforskat omra?de och stra?cker sig tillbaka till bo?rjan av 1960-talet. Altmans Z- scoremodeller a?r de mest tilla?mpade modellerna att fo?rutspa? en konkurs.
SPICA - ARISTO JÄMFÖRELSE studie av analysprogram med avseende på spånningskollaps i elektriska kraftsystem
Safe operation of a large synchronous power system as Nordel is not an easy task.There are several aspects to take into consideration. This thesis focuses on the problems due to voltage collapses in a transmission system.The ability to foresee an upcoming collapse is vital to maintain stable operation of the grid. The grid operator at Svenska Kraftnät (SvK) uses the computer program SPICA to predict the maximum transfer limit at specified transfer sections. SPICA uses actual states from the grid to predict the transfer limitation, and a quarter later a renewed estimate is produced and so on. This means that the operator can se his transfer limits vary every fifteen minutes.Our task in this project is to validate the accuracy of the limitations obtained by SPICA.
Utveckling av en beräkningsmodell för biogasproduktion
A growing interest for the climate and the environment has led to an increased interest forenvironmentally friendly and renewable energy sources, such as biogas. Planning new biogasplants requires a decision basis including facts about approximate amounts of biogas possibleto produce at the plant. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a model that calculates theapproximate biogas and digestate production from a planned or existing biogas plant.Developing the model required a literature review and studies of calculations concerningbiogas and digestate production performed by WSP Sweden AB. As a complement to themodel development, facts about substrates for biogas production were compiled through aliterature review. In addition the methane potential from selected materials was determined bybatch experiments.