Statistiska metoder för härledning av indata till säkerhetsanalyser inom kärnkraftsområdet
Objective: In recent years there has been an increasing interest within the clinical (medical) science in measuring people?s health. When estimating quality of life, present practise is to use the EQ-5D questionnaire and an index which weighs the different questions. The question is what happens if the individuals estimate there own health, would it differ from the public preferences? The aim is to make a new prediction model based on the opinion of patients and compare it to the present model based on public preferences.Method: A sample of 362 patients with unstable coronary artery disease from the Frisc II trial, valued their quality of life in the acute phase and after 3, 6 and 12 months. The EQ-5D question form and also the Time Trade-off method (TTO), a direct method of valuing health was used. A regression technique managing panel data had to be used in estimating TTO by the EQ-5D and other variables like gender and age.Result: Different regression techniques vary in estimating parameters and standard errors. A Generalized Estimating Equation approach with empirical correlation structure is the most suitable regression technique for the data material. A model based on the EQ-5D question form and a continuous age variable proves to be the best model for an index derived by individuals. The difference between heart patients own opinion of health and the public preferences differs a great amount in the severe health conditions, but are rather small for healthy patients. Of the total 243 health conditions, only eight of the conditions were estimated higher by the public index.Conclusions: As the differences between the approaches are significantly large the choice of index could affect the decision making in a health economic study.