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674 Uppsatser om Out-of-sample forecasts - Sida 8 av 45
Transferfunktionsmodeller modellering och prognoser av Sjötransportindex
We have by Statistics Sweden (SCB) been given the task of using different dynamic regression models in order to forecast service price index for sea transport. The aim is to see whether these models provide better forecasts than those previously used. This essay aim to identify, estimate and evaluate the selected prediction models. Through our data material we were given access to 28 sightings of sea transport index during the period of 2004 q1 to 2010 q4. We have chosen to evaluate three different transfer function models, one ARIMA model and one naive forecasting model. The input variables we decided to test in our transfer function models were the price of petroleum products, the port activity in Swedish ports and the lending rate of Swedish Central bank. The results of our study suggest that transfer function models generally provide better models than the ARIMA model and the naive forecast model.
Prognoser av räntabilitet på eget kapital - En studie av hur Re-prognoser påverkas vid en uppdelning av hävstångsformelns komponenter
Forecasting is an important part in attempting to predict how companies will perform in the future. The more accurate the prediction, the more valuable are the results obtained from the forecast. This thesis aims to investigate forecasts of return on equity, and whether a disaggregation of the leverage formula into its underlying components affects the forecasting ability positively. This is conducted by comparing a model based on the leverage formula's components with a model solely based on return on equity from previous years. The study includes manufacturing companies on the Swedish Stock Exchange over the period 1998-2011.
ADS och Matlab för optimering av pre-distortion av effektförstärkare
This master?s thesis deals with integrating simulations using Agilents Electronic Design Automation tool ADS with customized Matlab scripts, for solving complex analog and digital radio architectures. In particular, it addresses predistortion, realized in the digital domain, of power amplifiers, modeled in the analog domain. The former is implemented in Matlab while the latter is implemented in ADS. Two versions of integrating the two systems have been tested: 1) Iterative approach on sample basis and 2) Scheduled batch solution by matrix inversion.
African swine fever in Uganda : description of a recent outbreak and possible differential diagnoses
This study had two different aims. The main aim was to investigate the dynamics and impact of African swine fever (ASF) on a farm in Uganda during a recent outbreak through a case study. The second aim was to estimate the presence of two important differential diagnoses of ASF: Classical swine fever (CSF) and Porcine Reproduction and Respiratory syndrome (PRRS).The field and laboratory based case study of the farm level dynamics of ASF virus during a recent outbreak (October-December 2010) on a farm in the district of Mityana, Uganda, was conducted, using interviews, ELISA and RT-PCR. The financial impact on the farm was also estimated. The impact of the outbreak was profound.
Prevalence and antibiotic resistance of Campylobacter spp. in poultry and raw meat in the Can Tho Province, Vietnam
The aims of the study were to investigate the prevalence and antibiotic resistance of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli in chicken and chicken products, and to investigate farmer awareness of antibiotic resistance development. The study was conducted in the Can Tho province in Vietnam during six weeks in October to November 2008. Ninety-six samples from raw chickens were collected from twelve market places and analysed for the presence of Campylobacter. A total of 96 cloacal swabs from 20 farms were obtained and analysed for the presence of Campylobacter. Farmers were asked to answer eight questions concerning the housing of the chickens, modes of handling sick animals as well as use and knowledge of antibiotics and resistance development to antibiotics.
Hälsosamtal i elevhälsovården : Vad uppfattas som ett positivt och betydelsefullt hälsosamtal utifrån elev- och skolsköterskeperspektiv?
The aim: was to describe and compare a group of experts and critical care nurses' agreement in detecting delirium in intubated, ventilator treated patients with sedation / analgesia, before and after an in house training intervention with the instrument Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU).Method: A quasi-experimental study, one group pretest - posttest design. A convenience sample of 17 critical care nurses in a general intensive care unit included. To detect delirium the instrument CAM-ICU was used, 21 paired tests before and 22 after an educational intervention.Main Results: The results showed that after an in house training intervention sensitivity and kappa coefficient improved of the characteristic 1 "acute onset and fluctuating course," an improvement that was significant. In other features, and overall values were signs of numerical improvement and deterioration in sensitivity, specificity and kappa coefficient but no significant change.Conclusion: Implementing a new instrument for detecting delirium in clinical practice requires education and follow-up. A small sample of critical care nurses with varying ability to use the new instrument and the fact that patients' status may change rapidly making it difficult to draw any conclusions from this study.
Systematisk riskexponering i svenska hedgefonder: Svenska hedgefonders exponering mot riskfaktorerna i Fung & Hsieh (2004) under perioden 2006-2007
This paper aims to investigate the systematic risk exposure of Swedish hedge funds using a modified Fung & Hsieh (2004) asset-based style factor model. The results show that the average Swedish equity hedge fund and fund of funds had a significant positive exposure to the equity market portfolio and the spread between small cap and large cap stocks (SMB) during the sample period. This is consistent with our a priori expectations and previous international studies. We do not find the expected systematic fixed-income related risk exposure for the fixed-income hedge funds and fund of funds in the sample. The empirical material used in this study is taken from a publicly available fund database maintained by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen).
Missbrukares rätt till ekonomiskt bistånd : En rättssociologisk studie
The purpose of this study was to examine how the needs of social assistance for people with substance abuse are assessed in accordance to The Swedish Social Services Act 4th chapter 1§. The purpose was also to examine how substance abuse is assessed as a social problem by social workers, how the municipal guidelines concerning social assistance for substance abuser were constructed in relation to the Social Service Act and finally how social workers made their assessments of the need of social assistance to people with substance abuse in relation to the legislation. The sample was made among the municipalities in the county of Stockholm. Municipal guidelines were studied in 18 municipalities by content analysis. A sample of 11 social workers was chosen from 5 municipalities.
Cissus Quadrangularis Linn
The aims of the study were to investigate the prevalence and antibiotic resistance of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli in chicken and chicken products, and to investigate farmer awareness of antibiotic resistance development. The study was conducted in the Can Tho province in Vietnam during six weeks in October to November 2008. Ninety-six samples from raw chickens were collected from twelve market places and analysed for the presence of Campylobacter. A total of 96 cloacal swabs from 20 farms were obtained and analysed for the presence of Campylobacter. Farmers were asked to answer eight questions concerning the housing of the chickens, modes of handling sick animals as well as use and knowledge of antibiotics and resistance development to antibiotics.
Informationsspecialist eller informatör; likheter och skillnader på arbetsmarknaden
The change in the information society has affected the development of the labour market for information specialists and informants as well as their roles. Companies are now aware of the fact that information specialists have a variety of important skills and competence that is important for them. The goal of this thesis is to see what defines an information specialist and an informant and also to find out their situation on the labour market. The similarities and differences between the two professions will also be discussed in the thesis. The main method used is the investigation of the job advertisements in the journal DIK-forum from the year 2000 and year 2004.
Kapitalkostnaden på Stockholmsbörsen: En studie av marknadens implicita riskpremie i hög- och lågkonjunktur, samt hur den implicita kapitalkostnaden korrelerar med kapitalkostnaden enligt CAPM
This thesis explores some issues regarding estimations of the cost of capital on the Stockholm Stock Exchange through reverse engineering of the Residual Income Valuation model and through usage of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Previous studies are in conflict of whether the risk premium changes considerably over time or not. Furthermore, the risk premium estimated by CAPM tends to be fairly stable. In this study, reverse engineering of the cost of capital implied by analysts? forecasts shows a significant difference in the risk premium over time.
Klassning av fjällbjörkskog enligt FAO:s definition av skogsmark med hjälp av flygburen laserskanning
Sweden?s forestry legislation was updated in 2010 and a new definition of forest land was introduced. This definition was adapted to the one used by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for international statistics on the state of the world's forests. It is in short based on the lands ability to grow forest that reaches 5 meters, 10 % canopy closure and has a continuous distribution, according to FAO at least 0.5 hectares. A country-wide laser scanning is now carried out for the production of a new national elevation model; the laser data also provides information on forest height and density.
Kontrollerad gjutprocess för renare stål
In a multi-year project at Swerea Swecast AB studies on influence of dissolved gas on inclusions have been made. The knowledge about these parameters could be used to increase the quality of the final steel casting. The purpose of this thesis was to closer examine the impact of the oxygen level on inclusions.The questions asked were:? What was the amount of inclusions at different levels of oxygen?? What was the size of these inclusions at different levels of oxygen?? What does the inclusions consist of at different levels of oxygen?This was studied by measuring and sampling, sample preparation and microscopic analysis using an optical microscope and a scanning electron microscope (SEM). Measurements and sampling was performed at Smålands Stålgjuteri AB in Eksjö and at Swerea Swecast AB in Jönköping.
Improvement of positive strand assay used in detecting positive and negative RNA of hepatitis E virus
Background: Hepatitis E (HEV) is a small, non-enveloped virus that belongs to the viral genus Hepevirus. HEV is a positive sense single-stranded RNA virus and there is insufficient information regarding its replication. This is mainly because the virus has low capacity to grow in normally used cell cultures. Many specific strand assay detection studies have been done in order to understand more about HEV replication. Unfortunately, these assays have the disadvantage of giving false positive results.Aim: The aim of this project was to improve the positive strand assay to increase specificity and eliminate false positivity which is due to high sensitivity of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR).
Exponeringsrisker i samband med inhalationsbehandling av häst :
Bronchiolitis is a common performance decreasing disease in horses (Bracher et al,
1991¸Dixon et al, 1995) Its medical treatment includes inhalation therapy with
corticosteroids and b2-adrenoceptorer stimulators. Use of both these medicines is
prohibited for sport horses and athletes. Because the facemasks used for inhalation
therapy are not airtight, there is a risk for leakage of these medicines. We wanted to
see if cross exposure of nearby horses can result during normal recommended
treatment of a horse, and assess if this could result in doping positive urine sample
from the person treating the horse and from horses in the same airspace.
We did a pilot study with four healthy horses. The experiment was divided into
four parts.