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58 Uppsatser om Forecasts - Sida 1 av 4

Ledningsprognosers egenskaper - Hur påverkar de mängden Earnings Management

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between Earnings Management (EM) and certain characteristics of management Forecasts, among a sample of Swedish listed companies. The forecast characteristics studied are: 1) Forecast venue: How explicitly is the forecast presented? 2) Forecast precision: How detailed is the estimated number? 3) Forecast measure: Which measure(s) are forecasted? We use a sample of 68 annual management Forecasts, obtained from year-end reports between the years 2007-2011. EM during the forecasted year (2008-2012) is estimated using the cross-sectional modified-Jones model. The forecast characteristics are then related to the degree of EM during the forecasted period.

Prognostisering av utrustningar på Volvo Wheel Loaders

Volvo in Arvika produces wheel loaders, and the production is based on Forecasts. When a machine is ordered, the customer can choose what type of equipment he or she wants, and these equipments are also made Forecasts on. This is made by giving each equipment an estimated procentual usage that shows how many of the machines that will use this option. Today two people are working with the Forecasts, planer A in Eskilstuna and planer B in Arvika. Planer A makes a forecast based on the historical outcome and planer B then makes adjustments of this based on how many options that are ordered.

Preaching to the choir? A Comparison of Fiscal Forecasts by Governments, Fiscal Policy Councils and the European Commission in the European Semester Framework

The high debt levels experienced in European Countries have lead to academic interest in the deficit bias -the tendency for governments to run budget deficits and accumulate debt. In part one of this thesis a surveyof the economic literature on the origins and solutions to the deficit bias are conducted. The proposedinstitutional solution to the deficit bias in the form of Fiscal Policy Councils (FPC) are outlined and existingEuropean FPCs presented. Based on the works of Calmfors and Wren-Lewis (2011) the EuropeanCommission (EC) is defined as an FPC. Based on this survey, two hypothesis are formulated: (1) theForecasts of future macro-economic events and fiscal performance will differ between the national FPCs andthe national government.

Bull´s Eye? : Träffsäkerheten i analytikers prognoser

Background: An evaluation of analysts´ forecasting ability is interesting since their estimates constitute an important part in stock valuation and investment decisions. The recent years´ development in the stock market has lead to criticism of analysts? deficient Forecasts. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate analysts´ forecasting ability concerning companies quoted at Stockholmsbörsen between 1987 and 2002. We also intend to discuss possible explanations for analysts? behavior in case of deficient accuracy.

Analytiker och riktkurser: - Varför bry sig?

The purpose of this master thesis is to evaluate how the current share price and market consensus affect security analysts target price and if an investor should pay any attention to it. Empirical data is primarily collected from qualitative interviews with ten security analysts but also from a quantitative e-mail survey. Our main finding is that security analysts are indeed affected by each others earnings Forecasts as well as the current share price. This is not strange, it is in several aspects rational. Security analysts has often nothing to gain by standing out too much and not either by spending too much time trying to create their own opinions due to lack of time or the complexity of what is analyzed.

Prognostisering av slitdelar : hur ska Väderstad-Verken öka sin servicegrad?

The agricultural plantingmachines are used just a few weeks every year. That means that the supply of service and spare parts have to be good to make the timeliness costs low at the agricultural hard working periods. The machines wear down successivly when they are used. The wear is harder on some parts than the others on a machine. Spare parts can be dicided into consumables.

En flashestimator för den privata konsumtionen i Sverige med hjälpvariablerna HIP och detaljhandeln ? En tidsserieanalys med hjälp av statistikprogrammet TRAMO

In this essay we aim at finding an appropriate flash estimator of the quarterly Swedish private consumption (PK). With the aid of the statistics program TRAMO we study if monthly data from the consumer survey (HIP) and retail industry (DH) can be used in a transfer function model (TFM) to forecast PK. In the work of assessing the state of the market and the business trend, fast information from the national accounts is needed for making decisions for the economic politics in Sweden. A way to speed up the information process is to use leading economic indicators to asses this development. Another way to get information faster is to use a flash estimate.

Effektivisering av mindre lager

The project was conducted during a period from November 2014 to January 2015 at the company Westermo Teleindustri AB (WTE). The subject of the project was to make an inventory more efficient. The inventory was located at WTE, but was owned by the subsidiary Westermo Sverige (WSE).The inventory had a high amount of tied up capital. This was due to products that hadn?t been sold.

Utveckling och utvördering av statistiska metoder för att öka träffsäkerheten hos lokala vindprognoser

Wind is used as an energy source all over the world. To be able to use this effectively, there is a need for as good Forecasts and forecast models as possible. One of these models is Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) that is used to calculate short time Forecasts. This model is used here to calculate wind speeds at two different areas in Västra Götaland, Bengtsfors and Vänersborg. There are also wind measurements with SODAR stations for these areas.

Är det lönsamt att ta hänsyn till temperatursvängningar? : En fallstudie om prognostisering på Karlstads Energi

Being able to predict the future had been an invaluable competitive advantage for any corporation. Forecasting is a vital part of any business, hence a good forecast allows enterprises to invest in a beneficial way. However, there are several ways to prepare Forecasts and the forecast methodology can vary. An industry that is dependent on Forecasts is the energy industry. By predicting consumers' energy consumption, Swedish energy companies can hedge on the Nordic power market Nord Pool.

Analys av faktorer som påverkar interna leveransledtider : Dimensionering av lager

It is becoming increasingly important for companies to meet customer demands due to intense competition in today's global market, that forcing companies to improve their offerings and become better at managing their supply chain (Shen et al., 2006).  Long lead times can be reduced by using different methods and strategies shows various researches. Lead times occur in the planning, production, inventories and handling of products (Treville et al., 2003).The aim of the study is to develop a method to analyze the factors that affect the length of internal delivery lead time in manufacturing companies. The method also included suggestions for reducing delivery lead-time to internal customers.The main factors that influenced the length of the on delivery lead times has summarized to make a selection among the factors that can have the most significant impact. The selected elements will be used as a method to analyze how these areas affect a company?s length on internal delivery lead times.The study shows that the causes of the long delivery lead times was the location of the customer order point, uncertain Forecasts, long material and production planning time, and long waits in the production and storage.The delivery lead time, according to this report?s suggested improvements reduced by centralizing CODP and makes more reliable Forecasts.

Villkorad av verkligheten - Om produktionen av Arbetsförmedlingens yrkesbeskrivningar

The first aim of this study is to describe how the public employment service (PES) producesoccupational descriptions. The second aim is to analyse the conditions for that production.Method: The empiric material consists of seven qualitative interviews with employed at PES,operational plan for the team working with descriptions on occupations and observation notes.The overall theme in the study is Foucaults perspective on power. The conditions forproduction of occupational descriptions are understood in the light of the governmentality perspectiveand the concept of employability. Bourdieu´s concept habitus, symbolic violence and capital are usedto articulate the officials? values and experiences.Eight officials at PES produce the occupational descriptions.

Barkar det åt skogen för svenskt tidningspapper? : empirisk analys av efterfrågan och företagsstrategier på den svenska marknaden

According to Food and Agriculture Organization newsprint is defined as: Uncoated paper, unsized (or only slightly sized), containing at least 60 percent of mechanical wood pulp. The consumption of newsprint in Sweden was just over 798 000 tonnes in 2009, which represents approximately 90 kg per person. Although there are studies that predict a drastic reduction in newsprint consumption in the Western world, there seems to be a clear difference between Forecasts for the future given by statistical analysis of newsprint consumption and Forecasts given by experts in the industry. The former predict a continuing increase while the experts see a coming decrease in consumption.In this report, both demand and business strategies of newsprint in Sweden are studied. The study also presents a forecast of the future which is based on historical data and qualitative interviews.

Konsten att förutspå konjunkturen - Hur användbara är enkätbaserade snabbindikatorer?

Foreseeing future changes in economic activity is of up most importance to a wide array of actors. The time lag in the presentation of official GDP statistics means that to somewhat accurately capture a tendency of where the business cycle is heading one need turn to qualitative sentiment indicators such as Purchasing Managers? Index (PMI) and official sentiment indicators for valuable clues. This thesis uses in-sample and out-of-sample methods to evaluate how well PMI and official Business Tendency Surveys (BTS) in Sweden and Denmark fair against the year-on-year growth rate of industrial production. Moreover, various Swedish regional sentiment indicators get examined and a case study of the indicator for the Öresund region is performed.

Den bortglömda arbetslösheten? : En undersökning av hur socialdemokraterna beskriver sin ekonomiska politik under 1970-, 80- och 90-talet

The economic policy of the Swedish Social Democrats has undergone major changes during the last thirty years. From using a so-called Keynesian policy to promote full employment in the economy, the Social Democrats have switched to a more monetaristic policy to promote low inflation instead. What I intend to do with this study is to see if the policy change also can be noticed in how the party describe their own policy. Have the Social Democrats been open and transparent with their change in priorities, or have they tried to hide this in their rhetoric?The purpose of this thesis is to examine if one can notice a change from a Keynesian to a monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat?s descriptions of their economic policy.

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