Value-at-Risk (VaR) is among financial institutions a commonly used tool for measuring market risk. Several methods to calculate VaR exists and different implementations often results in different VaR forecasts. An interesting implementation is historical simulation, and the purpose of this thesis is to examine whether historical simulation with dynamic volatility updating is useful as a model to calculate VaR and how this differs in regard to type of asset or instrument. To carry out the investigation six different models are implemented, which then are tested for statistical accuracy through Christoffersens test. We find that incorporation of volatility updating into the historical simulation method in many cases improves the model.

Developed model for easier animal welfare assessment- with examples from dairy cows in loose housingAnimals in captivity are completely dependent on human care. If captive animals are prevented from exhibiting their natural behavior, they may suffer. Animal welfare inspectors, who insure that the animal welfare legislation is followed, use a checklist to assess the situation in the husbandry. This checklist contains only two levels of assessment, which may result in a lack of detail in the assessment of the husbandry. The objective of this report was to develop a more detailed model that provides an overview of the situation in husbandry.

Due to the forest industry downsizing, many communities in rural forest regions in Canada and Sweden are facing problems to survive. In order to create community sustainability, resilience and well-being in remote forest regions, the view on the forest resources has shifted towards multiple use, through the concept of sustainable forest management (SFM). Beside the economic and ecological elements of sustainability, the social forest values are needed, contributing to the human well-being, local participation, stakeholder collaboration, human rights and cultural connection. In this thesis the embodiment of the social component of SFM within Prince Albert Model Forest (Canada), and Vilhelmina Model Forest (Sweden) will be examined. Being partners and facing similar challenges as rural boreal forest regions, the two model forests are compared through analysis of projects and activities, conducted interviews and organization documents. Looking at projects mentioned as successful by the interviewees, they all have elements from the social values of SFM. The direction can be explained by the introduction of the Forest Communities Program in Canada, demanding the Model Forests to work towards community stability and resilience, the Model Forest organization concept itself and the way global focus are increasing around social forest values. In the future, it may be important that the role of the MFs enable some kind of political authorization and legitimacy in order to improve conflict solving and indigenous rights equality.

Making accurate predictions of private consumption expenditures is a difficult task. This thesis examines if consumer confidence can be used to forecast consumption. Using regression analysis, the link between consumer confidence and private consumption expenditures is analyzed for Sweden between the years 1994 and 2005. Two different models are estimated. In the first model consumption is regressed only on consumer confidence, while model two is extended to contain more variables.

During the past few years a vast amount of research has been done to increase the understanding of the complex ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Modelling and simulations are important tools to increase knowledge of the system. A suitable model must be simple to use and the parameters and variables needed in the model must be easy to access.In this paper a dynamical mass-balance model, CoastMab, which is validated for smaller coastal areas, has been used to predict concentrations and transports of phosphorus in three large coastal areas - the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Gdansk and the Gulf of Riga. CoastMab uses ordinary differential equations to regulate inflow, outflow and internal flows. To reflect seasonal variations in temperature and different types of flows the model has a temporal resolution of a month.

The fast developments in information and data technology during the recent years have accentuated the need for the business manager to interpret and act on information from the surrounding environment. Today we know little about what information is really used in the unique decision-making. Further, little is known about how information should be designed to fit people with a more intuitive approach to interpreting information. This study is therefore about the difference between peoples approach to interpreting information and how information should be designed to fit those with a more intuitive approach to interpreting information. The application is made to dairy farms in Sweden. The literature review describes the strategic leadership, the decision-making process and the intuitive and the analytic thinking.

The ISO standard ISO/IEC 17799/SS-627799-2 is a guidance for organizations to realize their information security goals. In spite of this standard, studies show flaws regarding information security in organizations. In particular flaws regarding overall view, knowledge and clear roles and responsibilities have been observed. The ISIT (Information Security Integrated Three level) model and its guidelines, developed in this thesis, help organizations to identify the required processes and procedures as well as the logical process flow. The thesis is based on theoretical studies and a case study within a multinational company.

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether placement, using a special display, of ecological products, will have an effect on consumer buying behaviour and thereby sales of these products. When talking about sales we refer to the amount of ecological products that are being bought, habitual and unplanned, as a response due to the placement of the products in-store. To further elucidate the purpose, the thesis will focus on if the placement of the products itself will have an impact on the customers? attitude towards buying ecological products. A deductive approach was applied where we did a quantitative study using triangulation to receive data to reveal if the placement of ecological products had any effect on the sales of these products.

Goal: To describe which evaluation method is used by Swedish retailers to assess a potential retail location and to describe to what extent the retail brand effects this strategic decision. Design: Analysis of ten interviews with companies within five retail sectors in Sweden. Main study: Indication of what methods are used to evaluate a location and how a company's retail brand affects the decision. Results: Retailers use a mix of theoretical methods to evaluate the location attributes and possible profit. Most common among mixtures was an application of the analog method, residual method or the checklist method in combination with a financial assessment.

This thesis project focuses on the need for better tools for analyzing competition for forest fuels in Sweden, in particular how policy measures may influence the market and involved actors in different regions of Sweden. Raw materials from the forest have for long constituted important inputs in the Swedish forest industry. Today some of these raw materials are increasingly used as inputs also in bioenergy production, largely driven by bioenergy promoting policies, and there are signs of increased competition for forest fuels which may have various and uncertain effects on the industries in question. The thesis project explores the possibilities to adapt previously used forest sector equilibrium models into a new model suitable for analysis of Swedish forest fuel markets, called the Swedish Forest Sector Trade Model (SFSTM). The approach takes into account regional differences in supply and demand for 23 types of products produced and/or used by eight types of producers, plus consumers, in five different regions (four Swedish and one international).

In the thesis we have shown that it is possible with current technology, to buildneighborhoods that are largely self-sufficient. We have obtained some information aboutongoing work in the field of energy efficient buildings and active house which we have usedto develop a model. The feasibility study for Ranagård we have e.g been forced tofollow laws on groundwater covered, resulting in the construction of basements for singlefamilyhome is not possible. The model that we have built up overtime has been the central part of the work. The model illustrates very well what an activehouse neighborhood means and potential of such an area.

Virtual Design and Construction (VDC) is the definition for using BIM in the construction process to simulate and analyse the building. Resulting use of the technology will according to proponents lead to fewer construction errors, a better understanding between stakeholders for the construction project, less communication problems and a smoother construction process. Although BIM has according to researchers a big potential, few companies have succeeded in broad and continues implementation. The study aims to identify the factors affecting the implementation. More precisely identify what factors influencing the decision to adopt VDC and potential barriers in the diffusion process. The empirical findings are based on a case study of NCC Construction Sweden.

This article discusses desirable political representation within the framework of representative democracy. In the desirable representation it is the responsibility of the politician to balance authoritative decision making with responsiveness towards the voters. The article intends to make visible the ethical complexity within representative democracy. Ethically the commission to represent is further complicated because the political parties constitute a central role in the political life and request loyalty of the politician. At the same time the politician is elected by the voters and thus the representative has to balance the dual representation.The politician can meet supplementary but also contradictory norms of action in decision taking.

In Sweden we have the highest rate of nontraditional students among Europe. Coincidently, we also have the highest rates of drop outs among OECD. In this particular field, drop out from higher education, there is a need fore more qualitative studies that can support the "statistics". Studies about experiences of drop outs are significant for society, university and individual. The aim of this study is to describe and understand how nontraditional student experiences drop out from higher education.

AbstractIn this thesis we aim to extend the current theories about a concept called persona. A persona is a model of a user, mostly based on qualitative research and made with such accuracy that it to some extent can be used as a replacement of a real user in a development process and as a communicative tool. We will present a way of constructing this persona without meeting the actual users and follow up with interviews from the organization using them. This will lead to a model over the process of introducing personas as a concept in an organization,previously not familiar with the concept. The model is adapted to also work for projects and organizations where the concept is already known..