Kim Jong Il - Docka eller dockmakare?

Sammanfattning

This paper has bearing on the subject of foreign policy analysis and decision-making,

but is nonetheless important to peace and conflict studies due to its emphasis on

nuclear weapons and deterrence.

I have constructed a theoretical framework for the analysis of foreign policy

decision-making that I set out to test on a crucial case. The framework is

crosscutting, and takes into consideration four levels of analysis: the system-,

regional-, state-, and individual level. It is centred on a key decision maker, and

applies a cognitive approach for determining his or hers belief system through which

the inputs from the other levels are filtered in order for the decision maker to

construct a perception of reality, from which the decision is then formulated within.

The framework is applied to North Korean and its leader Kim Jong Il. It sets out

to explain his behaviour in the matter of their claimed nuclear weapons program, and

his decision to conduct a nuclear weapons-test, getting inside his head trying to figure

out why he chose to do it and for what reasons.

The conclusion indicates that the basic structure of the framework and its general

applicability is sound, but that it needs further testing in order to make it perfectly solid.