What goes up must come down - Modelling economic consequences of wind turbine decommissioning
Wind turbineDecommissioningEconomic consequencesModelCostRevenueForecastManagement of enterprisesFöretagsledningManagementBusiness and Economics
At the time being there is limited experience within turbine decommissioning in Sweden and the economic effects are unknown. Despite this, there are expectations that revenues generated by sales of materials will cover decommissioning costs. The model developed identifies thirteen parameters that vary between different types of turbines and that affect the economic consequences of decommissioning. The three most important parameters are turbine location, tower material, and the scope of decommissioning. Trends in the wind energy industry show that these three factors are developing in a manner that increases decommissioning costs dramatically. The model also shows that the economic consequences of decommissioning are very sensitive to price changes. One of the most important factors affecting the economic outcome of decommissioning is the price of metals found in the turbine. Since decommissioning will take place in twenty years, it is certain that prices will have changed. Therefore it is risky to assume that decommissioning costs will be covered by the future scrap value of the turbine.