Realoptioners förklaringsvärde och praktiska tillämpbarhet
En tillämpning på den svenska onlinespelmarknaden
Real options analysis is a method for assigning value to flexibility in decisions, coming from uncertainty in future outcomes. This thesis ascertains to what degree this method is superior to traditional net present value analysis, with regards to ease of implementation in relation to the benefits from being able to measure the total value. Real options analysis is evaluated with a case study of the Swedish online gambling market, and conducted with the binomial framework of Copeland and Antikarov (2003). The authors find the sensible use of real options dependant on the specific situation to which it is applied, i.e. a certain degree of future uncertainty and managerial flexibility is necessary for justification of the increased workload. Further, real options are best suited for when managerial flexibility can be clearly defined in terms of simple options. The benefits from a correct valuation are steeply and inversely related to the degree of complexity, which in turn depends on the degree of realism. The practicality of real options as a strategic tool is mainly for deciding among which projects to accept, and to a lesser degree as a strategic guide for future actions. It is further concluded that real options is especially valuable for inducing the right mindset with regards to concepts of uncertainty and flexibility.