Klimat i miljökonsekvensbeskrivningar
hantering av klimatförändringar och extrema väderhändelser i MKB
There has always been global warming on earth and it is because of it that the earth is inhabitable. Without global warming the temperature on earth would be around -18 ° C instead of today's + 15 ° C. Global warming is generated by greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane which trap long wave radiation in the earth's atmosphere. The problem today is that the global concentration of green house gases has significantly increased since the 1750's as a result of human activity. Today's values widely exceed the preindustrial values. Scientists have established the sharp increase in greenhouse gas concentration by using ice cores from Greenland's inland ices. The increased content of greenhouse gases makes the average temperature to rise in the atmosphere, on land and in the sea. This change is called climate change and will involve many changes for the world.
The scientists have created climate models to better understand what the rise in temperature will lead to. According to those climate models the climate in Sweden will become warmer and wetter. The oceans will rise due to thermal expansion and melting of the glaciers. The wind is expected to be stronger and waves bigger along Sweden's shoreline. Climate changes and extreme weather events will have consequences to the plants and animals, ground stability and pollution diffusion.
Environment impact assessment (EIA) is used to estimate what environment influence a project or a plan will create. EIAs are almost always required when filing a permit in accordance with the Swedish law. The process involving EIA is in a early stage of the Swedish social planning process.
The hypothesis of my work is that we today don't take the climate change in consideration when we perform EIAs. To examine if my hypothesis was correct, I preformed two case studies. A literature study was performed to examine how we can handle climate changes and extreme weather events in EIAs.
The result of the literature study showed that it is possible to take climate change in to consideration in the EIAs. It is important not to limit the time horizon too quickly. With short time frames it is easy to miss consequences due to climate changes. It is important to have a long time horizon on the no- action alternative so that the impact of the effects of the climate change can be taken into account. There is already an abundance of knowledge on how to prevent natural disasters like flooding, landslides, erosion etc. What is left is to connect it to the Swedish social planning and EIA processes. For example it will be important not to limit spreading corridors for flora and fauna. It will also be important for hospitals, schools etc. to be located above the 100-years flood plains.
The case study includes a plan for new houses and an expansion of a ski lift system. They are in different parts of the country and have different risk areas to take in to consideration. The results show that the hypothesis was correct in this cases. The two cases hade taken none or little consideration to climate change. With today's knowledge about the changing climate there ought to be a greater consideration to it in today's EIAs.