Kim Jong Il - Docka eller dockmakare?
TeoriutvecklingUtrikespolitisk analysKärnvapenNordkoreaKim Jong IlPeace and conflict researchPolemologyFreds- och konfliktforskningLaw and Political Science
This paper has bearing on the subject of foreign policy analysis and decision-making,but is nonetheless important to peace and conflict studies due to its emphasis onnuclear weapons and deterrence.I have constructed a theoretical framework for the analysis of foreign policydecision-making that I set out to test on a crucial case. The framework iscrosscutting, and takes into consideration four levels of analysis: the system-,regional-, state-, and individual level. It is centred on a key decision maker, andapplies a cognitive approach for determining his or hers belief system through whichthe inputs from the other levels are filtered in order for the decision maker toconstruct a perception of reality, from which the decision is then formulated within.The framework is applied to North Korean and its leader Kim Jong Il. It sets outto explain his behaviour in the matter of their claimed nuclear weapons program, andhis decision to conduct a nuclear weapons-test, getting inside his head trying to figureout why he chose to do it and for what reasons.The conclusion indicates that the basic structure of the framework and its generalapplicability is sound, but that it needs further testing in order to make it perfectly solid.