Kärnkraftens värde i framtiden
en jämförelse med kraftvärmeteknologi från biobränsle
The debate on the future of Nuclear power in Sweden has increased with the discussion on global warming. The uncertainty of fossil fuel- and carbonprices the latest years has aroused considerable interest in Nuclear from power companies, industry and politicians. Nuclear power plants have negligible CO2 emissions and are not directly affected by increased price of emission rights and fossil fuels. The future power production needs to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases to become sustainable.
The purpose of this study is to examine the value for power producers to have the option to invest in Nuclear power and how a Nuclear power venture would affect future electricity prices. The study uses two methods, a traditional cash flow model and real option analysis, to estimate the value of Nuclear power. Real option analysis is as a complement to traditional investment valuing methods and is considered to give a better foundation for decision-making because it captures the flexibility in an investment-decision. This study use a model where a power company should invest in either Nuclear Power or biofuel fired combined heat and power plant on two occasions, 2010 and 2015.
The result of the study shows that there is a value for the power companies to have the option to invest in Nuclear power. The value depends a lot of what requirement the investor have on the return of the project and taxes on Nuclear power in the future. A Nuclear Power venture would cause a smaller increase in the electricity price since it is the least costly alternative for new investments and it will not directly be affected by the trade in emission rights.