Cantralasiens strategiska betydelse
Den nye stora kampen mellan USA och Ryssland
The aim of this thesis is to assess the strategic importance of Central Asia as a whole and interests of great powers in the region in particular within the theoretical framework chosen. The work shows Central Asia as an area of the New Great Game, analogue of the original Great Game which was played out between the British Empire and Tsarist Russia in XIX century. The parallels between the original Great Game and the New Great Game are drawn in order to understand the scope and the true intentions of the players of the latter one. Also, the security issues in the contemporary Central Asia are explored and analyzed to provide with the background for future predictions. Furthermore, the indirect purpose of the thesis is to examine whether the international system has changed from that of two centuries ago by comparing the structure of the international systems at the time of two Games. Different theories are gathered into one system theory which serves as a framework for analytical elaboration. The theories used are - the theory of offensive realism, regional security complex theory, strategic theory and the concept of strategic geography, where the applicable essence is withdrawn for analysis of the processes in the contemporary Central Asia. The strategic interests of the regional powers in Central Asia are described and analyzed with the significant help of the theoretical part. In order to reach the aim of the research the historical concept of the Great Game is chosen as a method. By comparison of the location, players, means and goals with the New Great Game the validity of concept is verified and, consequently, applied to the Central Asian case. On the basis of theoretical and methodological parts the empirical findings are withdrawn and analyzed in turn providing us with the reasonable conclusions on the issue. The perspectives of the two key players - the US and Russia - are analyzed and the possible predictions are made. In a similar way, certain scenarios are provided to Central Asian states, depending on the development of the New Great Game. Finally, the recommendations for further research are given. Last but not least, this work is a study of one part of geopolitics in one region at one time, thereby the conclusion drawn is actual only for one region, but not for the discipline as a whole.