Avancerad scenarioanalys för ambulansplanering
This paper describes the development of a simulation model for the ambulance flow in the Västra Götalands-region of Sweden, and an analysis tool for the output of the simulation model. The aim of the simulation model was to be able to evaluate the outcome from changes in the ambulance operations, such as a reorganization of ambulances or an increase in intensity of the ambulance calls. This evaluation is meant to serve as decision support for the strategic planning of the ambulance operations. The analysis tool was developed to visualize the abundant geographical data produced by the simulation model in a meaningful way. The simulation model was validated against historical data which showed that the dispatch time for the highest prioritized ambulance calls corresponds well with historical data. However, other metrics indicates that further modelling might be required to increase the accuracy of the simulation model. Most notable, ambulance dispatches for ambulance calls of lower priority differed significantly from historical data. Specific modifications to the model to correct this difference are mentioned. Finally, there are some suggestions for improving the accuracy of the simulation model and a brief discussion about future development.