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3774 Uppsatser om Lee-Carter model - Sida 1 av 252
Att ta inkarnationen på allvar : Carter Heyward's view on spirituality and sexuality
En undersökning av den amerikanska feminist- och befrielseteologen Carter Heywards syn på andlighet och sexualitet. Undersökningen visar att Heyward med utgångspunkt i en relationell teologi ser både andlighet och sexualitet som lika viktiga aspekter av en autentiskt ömsesidig relation mellan människor..
Den andres bröd : Levnadsrisk utifrån Lee-Cartermodellen
Under det gångna århundradet ökade den förväntade livslängden avsevärt såväl i Sverige som i övriga världen. 1900-talets förbättrade livslängd drevs inledningsvis av en minskad barnadödlighet medan de senare årtiondena kännetecknades av minskad dödlighet i höga åldrar.En åldrande befolkning innebär ökade krav på sjukvård, äldreomsorg och inte minst pensionssystem. Pålitliga prognoser för vår framtida livslängd behövs för att beräkna de resurser som nämnda verksamheter kommer att ta i anspråk och utgör förutsättningen för en rättvis prissättning av försäkringsprodukter med levnadsrisk.Lee-Carter-modellen är en av vår tids tongivande modeller för mortalitetsprognostisering. Modellen används här för att göra livslängdsprognoser utifrån svenska mortalitetsdata; prognoserna jämförs sedan med observerade utfall.Mot bakgrund av resultatet diskuteras levnadsrisk med fokus på pensioner.Inte oväntat presterar prognoserna ingen felfri bild av verkligheten och prognosfelet varierar i storlek mellan skattningarna; att använda dem som underlag för pensionsberäkningar hade i förlängningen varit ohållbart. Exemplet illustrerar på samma gång vår osäkerhet inför framtidens livslängdsutveckling och svårigheten i att prognostisera den..
Att plantera fredens träd med rättvisan som rötter: Sadat och fredsprocessen 1977 - 1979
One of the more hopeful signs in the Middle East-conflict during the 20th century was president Sadat´s visit to Jerusalem in November 1977. His speech in Knesset arose deep feelings, from open hostility to careful optimism and belief in the future. During nearly one and a half year Egyptian and Israeli delegations negotiated. They came to a peace-agreement, the Camp David-Accords, under the guidance of the United States. The main-actors during the peace- negotiations were President Sadat, Prime Minister Begin and President Carter.
Levande Spelvärldar : när illusionen bryts
I den här uppsatsen redovisar jag min undersökning av inlevelse (immersion) och vad det är som bryter den. En spelvärld är tänkt att stödja spelarens inlevelse, inte bryta den, ?creatures do not exist in a vacuum? (Carter, K). Jag lägger fram olika avbrott (Design avbrott, Grafiska avbrott och Effekt avbrott ) mot inlevelse i spel baserade på litteratur och artiklar av b.la. Adams E, Carter K och Sutherland J.
Synen p? ekonomisk frihet inom Demokraterna och Republikanerna : En id?analys av fyra olika amerikanska presidenters syn p? ekonomisk frihet inom Demokraterna och Republikanerna i USA utifr?n Nozick, Rawls och Berlins definitioner
Today, many regard the Democratic and the Republican Party in the US to be significantly different than prior with regard to changed rhetoric and changed political world. This reason alone is enough to make an interesting research question how democratic and republican presidents view ?economic freedom? based on Robert Nozick, John Rawls and Isaiah Berlins perception of economic freedom. The research question therefore relies on how present presidents view economic freedom compared to how past presidents view economic freedom with Nozick, Rawls and Berlin as emphasizers within the theory. This is performed with the use of by Marie Demker?s coined the is-should-do-scheme, being an analytical tool providing from the empirical material the first State of the Union speech by the selected president where the presidents view on reality (is), uthopia (should) and strategy (do) is presented.
Logikbaserade dokumentåtervinningsmodeller
The thesis deals with three document retrieval models based on logic: the Boolean model,the fuzzy model and the Van Rijsbergen model.In Chapter 1, the author presents the purpose of the thesis. This is to give the logical foundationof the models, to describe them and to examine them critically. In Chapter 2, some importantnotions in document retrieval are presented. Chapter 3 is devoted to the Boolean model, Chapter4 to the fuzzy model and Chapter 5 to the Van Rijsbergen model.These three chapters are organized in the same way. First, the logical foundation of the modelis given.
Modellering, identifiering och reglering av skannern i ett laserbatymetrisystem
The purpose with this masters thesis was to model the scanner in a system for laser bathymetry. The model was then used to develop a controller for the scanner so a good search pattern was achieved. Two different types of models have been tested, a physical model and a Black Box model of Box Jenkins type. The physical model has been derived from Lagranges equations. Identification experiments have been used to compute the Black Box model and to find the unknown parameters in the physical model.
Modellering av indunstning på Södra Cell Mönsterås
Evaporation is a part of the chemical recovery department at wood pulping mills. The purpose of evaporation is to remove water from the black liquor, which makes the liquor combustible. The process is very energy demanding, and having a well-functioning model of the system is of greatest interest. The model can then be used to study energy consumption and to test different control strategies. Two models have been developed during the master thesis.
Demonstrationsprojektets roll i framväxten av ny teknik: Fallstudier av två vindkraftprojekt
This report describes a synchronous machine model with magnetic saturation in d-axis, neutralconnection and electrical exciter interface for the transient simulator PSCAD/EMTDC. It hasbeen designed and verified in comparison to the regular machine model in EMTDC.The performance of the model is very good when incorporating a linear as well as a saturatedmagnetising inductance. The dynamic deviation is only thousandths to ten thousandths perunit. By using a cubic interpolation of the saturation curve, the model gives a good representationof the saturation effect. The open source code implementation of the synchronousmachine model gives the possibility to easily adapt the model to specific requirements.The derived model makes it possible to simulate a synchronous machine with its excitationsystems, e.g.
Modellering av en panna med rörlig rost :
The aim of this master thesis was to create a dynamic model for the processes in a solid fuel boiler of the moving grate type. Another aim with the model was to keep it as simple as possible but still able to catch the dynamics of the processes in the bedplate of the boiler. The creation of the model had its origin from drying and combustion equations used in earlier modeling work of boilers. The represented model has been used to simulate different kinds of disturbances in a boiler and different ways to control the boiler. These tests show that controlling a number of parameters in the bed of the boiler is an effective way to keep the grate stable during disturbances.
Adaptiv katalysatormodell för reglering
This master?s thesis describes the development of a model of the catalystsystem aiming at control by an MPC. A well functioning model, which is suitable in control purpose, is important while emission legislation become more and more hard to fulfill for the car manufacturers. Much research has been done in the field of physical modeling of the system, but in this work a linear adaptive time discrete ARX-model is developed and validated.The systems tendency to change its dynamic during usage implies that the model must be adaptive. The developed model proved to be well functioning and shows promising conditions for the MPC design.
Modell av en synkronmaskin för PSCAD/EMTDC med magnetisk mättning i d-led och elektriskt gränssnitt för fältmatare
This report describes a synchronous machine model with magnetic saturation in d-axis, neutralconnection and electrical exciter interface for the transient simulator PSCAD/EMTDC. It hasbeen designed and verified in comparison to the regular machine model in EMTDC.The performance of the model is very good when incorporating a linear as well as a saturatedmagnetising inductance. The dynamic deviation is only thousandths to ten thousandths perunit. By using a cubic interpolation of the saturation curve, the model gives a good representationof the saturation effect. The open source code implementation of the synchronousmachine model gives the possibility to easily adapt the model to specific requirements.The derived model makes it possible to simulate a synchronous machine with its excitationsystems, e.g.
Analys, modellering och återskapande av fordonsdynamiska rörelser i tåg
The purpose of this thesis was to analyse, model and finally generate dynamic vehicular motions in a train. The objective with the analysis was to find important motions for a realistic train experience. The motions from the analysis were then weighted against possibilities for generation in a motion platform.A dynamic motion model was created to model the selected motions. The model was implemented in a simulation environment, more specifically MATLAB/Simulink. The simulation environment was used to simulate the model and to generate outputs to control a motion platform.
?Vad är det jag gör egentligen?? - om att med videons hjälp bli medveten om helheten
This project consists of an adaptation, trial and evaluation of a model for practicing. Based on prior research I created a model aiming mainly to raise a musician?s self- awareness around the different parameters a performance consists of. An additional wish was for it to simultaneously assist the musician in monitoring his or her progress. With video recording and self-evaluation as the two main parts I tried the model by using it over a period of three months.
Multipel regressionsanalys av variabler som paverkar BNP
In this report a model was constructed in order to determine how a number of covariates influence the gross domestic product, GDP. The covariates were chosen depending on their expected influence on GDP, for example education and life expectancy. The data used in this report are collected from the World Bank. The model to describe GDP has been calculated using multiple line arregression. In order to reach a reliable final model the number of covariates has been gradually decreased to eliminate insignificant covariates.