The DuPont formula is one of the most well known and basic tools used for financial statement analysis and is highly useful for understanding firms strategies and operating environment. Previous studies on American listed companies have also shown that analysis of the changes in the DuPont components is useful in Forecasting contexts. In this thesis we test whether disaggregating the change in return on net operating assets provides incremental information about future performance for Swedish listed and not listed companies. We find that the change in asset turnover is a leading indicator of increased profitability for both listed and private companies, regardless of size. We also find evidence that the usefulness of the disaggregation for understanding future performance is greater in capital intense industries and lesser in service industries..

A multivariate cross-sectional model is used in this thesis to proxy for expected earnings and to estimate return on equity for 214 companies over the period 2009-2013, using Swedish data. The model, which has never been tested on Swedish data before, is first confirmed to function as a Forecasting model for expected return. Furthermore, the model is evaluated through a comparison with two univariate models based on the assumption that return on equity follows a mean reversion process. Forecast accuracy is calculated as the difference of estimated returns and actual returns. The results show that the univariate models' forecasts are superior to the multivariate model's..

Fältförsök gjordes 2010 på tre olika platser i Sverige. För att utröna ifall man kan minska infektionsrisken av gråmögel i jordgubbar (Fragaria x ananasa), orsakad av Botrytis cinerea, genom att använda ett prognos program som beslutsunderlag för när man ska göra bekämpning. Idag sker kontroll av B. cinerea i huvudsak genom kemisk bekämpning som utförs efter ett rutinprogram. Användandet av en prognosmodell innebär att man bara sprutar när klimatet är gynnande för B.

The Swedish Transport Agency has for a long time collected data on a monthly basis for different variables that are used to make predictions, short projections as well as longer projections. They have used SAS for producing statistical models in air transport. The model with the largest value of coefficient of determination is the method that has been used for a long time. The Swedish Transport Agency felt it was time for an evaluation of their models and methods of how projections is estimated, they would also explore the possibilities to use different, completely new models for Forecasting air travel. This Bachelor thesis examines how the Holt-Winters method does compare with SARIMA, error terms such as RMSE, MAPE, R2, AIC and BIC  will be compared between the methods. The results which have been produced showing that there may be a risk that the Holt-Winters models adepts a bit too well in a few variables in which Holt-Winters method has been adapted.

Vi ställs dagligen inför väldigt många val och beroende på vilka val vi väljer att göra kommer dessa till stor del att påverka hur vi lever vårt liv och även hur tillfreds vi kommer att vara med livet. Vi baserar många av våra val på känslomässiga förutsägelser som är våra antaganden om hur framtida händelser kommer att påverka oss känslomässigt. Våra känslomässiga förutsägelser är dessvärre ofta påverkade av olika bias som gör att vi missbedömer hur starkt och under hur lång tid vi kommer att reagera känslomässigt på kommande händelser, vilket i sin tur påverkar vilka val vi kommer att göra. Den här uppsatsen kommer att undersöka hur våra känslomässiga förutsägelser påverkar vårt subjektiva välbefinnande och även hur förståelse för detta skulle kunna användas i psykologisk coachning i form av interventioner för att hjälpa människor att göra fler val som leder till ett ökat subjektivt välbefinnande..

The aim of this small thesis is to investigate if the probability of business failure is higher at the time of divestment than at the time of acquisition for portfolio companies that have been subject to private equity ownership. The background for this thesis is the widespread critique aimed at private equity firms, claiming that they increase the risk in their portfolio companies. We have performed a study of 53 buyout transactions, involving Swedish manufacturing companies, covering a time span of 13 years, from 1995 to 2007. We find evidence of an increased risk of business failure for the portfolio companies with a short Forecasting horizon (within one year). The absolute increase in the sample is however small.

This essay discusses and evaluates the international currency market in regards to efficiency. To prove the theory that, the difference between expected and actual exchange rates is explained by the difference in expected and actual interest rates and the difference in expected and actual inflation between countries, a model was developed. This model was inspired by the paper of Sebastian Edwards (1982), and is based on three theories; UIP, IS/LM and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. The model uses 16 regressions estimated from three pairs of curriencies: $/SEK, £/SEK and ?/SEK.

Shell companies are characterized by containing liquid assets such as cash, securities or other similar assets. Transactions of shell companies constitutes a severe problem since the purchaser often has the aim of obtaining undue tax advantages by not paying the tax debt of the company.Historically it has been complicated for the legislator to stop the set-up in an efficient way since the transactions as such are not illegal, instead rather commonly used for example to restructure companies or for the transfer of companies to the younger generation. The purpose of the current legislation is to prevent individuals and corporations to involve in shell company trade. Aiming for an efficient legislation, the tax rate is at a very high level.The issue with the rules is that also honest buyers are at risk of being covered. This calls for high demands in complying with the principle of legal certainty and the possibility to forecast the tax consequences.The purpose of the thesis is to identify and analyze eventual problems when applying the legislation.

The first Debt Relief Act was introduced in 1994 into Swedish law. The old Debt Relief Act was replaced on 1 January 2007 by the current Debt Relief Act. The current law is in many ways similar to the older law. The main change is the debt settlement process.The Debt settlement Act's main purpose is to financially rehabilitate over-indebted individuals. This aim should be balanced against the creditors' interest in getting paid for their claims.

This paper describes a study examining four different GARCH models AR(1)-GARCH(1,1), AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1), AR(1)-APGARCH(1,1) and AR(1)-GJR-GARCH(1,1), and their ability to predict future volatility and thereby providing more reliable estimates for Value-at-Risk. The study is based on daily observations for the return of the OMX Stockholm 30 Index, during the time period 31st December 1996 to 29th December 2006. The coefficients for these GARCH models have been estimated using a five-year rolling estimation window, with one-year lags, for five different in-sample-periods. These five in-sample-periods, and the coefficients given by them, have been used to generate five out-of-sample predictions for the volatility in each year. Using these volatility predictions, the daily Value-at-Risk has been calculated for confidence intervals of 90 percent, 95 percent, and 99 percent, respectively, during the time period between 1st January 2001 and 29th December 2006.

Balansering av tillgång och efterfrågan har alltid varit ett aktuellt ämne och för att klara av denna balansering krävs information om kommande efterfrågan. Denna information måste ligga så långt fram i tiden som det tar för att med säkerhet få hem exempelvis material. För att lyckas med detta använder sig företag i olika utsträckning av uppskattad framtida efterfrågan, så kallade prognoser. Prognoser kan definieras som systematiska metoder för att förutsäga framtida händelser.Problemet är att oavsett hur prognoser görs stämmer det prognostiserade värdet nästan aldrig överens med det verkliga utfallet. Många företag vet att deras prognoser inte är exakta utan att veta vad de ska göra åt saken.

In Sweden there are about 4 million hectares of bare peat (mire). This land has great potential to be transformed into productive forest land, provided drainage is carried out and, in some cases, even fertilization with ashes. Drainage of mires is necessary because the high groundwater table prevents trees from growing due to reduced oxygen availability. Some of the key nutrients that trees need to grow appear in too small quantities in mires, especially potassium (K) and phosphorus (P). Ash from the combustion of biomass contains these elements and is therefore suitable as a fertilizer.

Over the last couple of years, growers, researchers, advisors and plant protection companies have noticed increasing problems with tortricids in Swedish apple orchards. Since the insecticide Gusathion (azinphosmethyl) has been banned (end of 2008; KemI 2008), a further increase of tortricid populations can be expected. In order to get a picture of species composition and population densities among the tortricids, an inventory of seven species, Adoxophyes orana, Archips podana, Archips rosana, Cydia pomonella, Hedya nubiferana, Pandemis heparana and Spilonota ocellana was made in 11 orchards in southern Sweden (Skåne) in 2008. Population densities were estimated by bud sampling (April 20-25), pheromone trapping (May 5-September 22) and assessment of fruit damage (September 9-12). In all orchards A.

Title: Bottleneck management through materials administration Course:  4FE05EAuthors:  Mikael Karlsson and Johannes Mueller  Examiner: Helena ForslundKey words:  Bottleneck management, material management, process description, timber, proceduresPurpose:   The objective of this study is divided into three parts, all three parts of the purpose aim for the same goal. Namely, to improve the material management so that this enables the bottleneck in the planing mill to keep a continuous  flow, and thereby minimizing the risk for production stops at LB-Hus.  Part.  1:  Identify  and  analyze the material management  connected to  the planing mill  in order to identify problem areas.Part.2:  Identify  improvement potential  in the material management connected to the planing mill.  Part.3: Suggest improvements in the material management connected to the planing mill. Theoretical framework: Process mapping, inventory accounting, balance safety, inventory availability / service levels, safety stock and reorder point, Forecasting and routine descriptions.Empirical foundation:  Interviews carried out at LB-House,  illustrated with the help of process maps and a description of each process.  Conclusions:  To work with  the  suggestions  given  and  to  follow  clear procedures  in  all  processes would  result in  a more  efficient  inventory management,  it would also present  a  solution  to  the problem regarding the planing mill being a bottle neck.Suggestions for further research: Review and map the information flow from demand to production start.

A more complex and turbulent world market puts pressure on flexibility and the ability to adjust its business to the market changes. The rapid and unpredictable change is hade to analyze and forecast which demands more short-term Forecasting. The issue for this dissertation is based upon the demand of more flexible ways of doing business in the bank sector in Sweden, which is a turbulent and unpredictable market. Handelsbanken is a company that uses the so called Beyond budgeting concept and the dissertation is about this company?s ability to solve the economic governance without the traditional budgeting process.