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71 Uppsatser om Forecast - Sida 3 av 5

Den andres bröd : Levnadsrisk utifrån Lee-Cartermodellen

Under det gångna århundradet ökade den förväntade livslängden avsevärt såväl i Sverige som i övriga världen. 1900-talets förbättrade livslängd drevs inledningsvis av en minskad barnadödlighet medan de senare årtiondena kännetecknades av minskad dödlighet i höga åldrar.En åldrande befolkning innebär ökade krav på sjukvård, äldreomsorg och inte minst pensionssystem. Pålitliga prognoser för vår framtida livslängd behövs för att beräkna de resurser som nämnda verksamheter kommer att ta i anspråk och utgör förutsättningen för en rättvis prissättning av försäkringsprodukter med levnadsrisk.Lee-Carter-modellen är en av vår tids tongivande modeller för mortalitetsprognostisering. Modellen används här för att göra livslängdsprognoser utifrån svenska mortalitetsdata; prognoserna jämförs sedan med observerade utfall.Mot bakgrund av resultatet diskuteras levnadsrisk med fokus på pensioner.Inte oväntat presterar prognoserna ingen felfri bild av verkligheten och prognosfelet varierar i storlek mellan skattningarna; att använda dem som underlag för pensionsberäkningar hade i förlängningen varit ohållbart. Exemplet illustrerar på samma gång vår osäkerhet inför framtidens livslängdsutveckling och svårigheten i att prognostisera den..

Preaching to the choir? A Comparison of Fiscal Forecasts by Governments, Fiscal Policy Councils and the European Commission in the European Semester Framework

The high debt levels experienced in European Countries have lead to academic interest in the deficit bias -the tendency for governments to run budget deficits and accumulate debt. In part one of this thesis a surveyof the economic literature on the origins and solutions to the deficit bias are conducted. The proposedinstitutional solution to the deficit bias in the form of Fiscal Policy Councils (FPC) are outlined and existingEuropean FPCs presented. Based on the works of Calmfors and Wren-Lewis (2011) the EuropeanCommission (EC) is defined as an FPC. Based on this survey, two hypothesis are formulated: (1) theForecasts of future macro-economic events and fiscal performance will differ between the national FPCs andthe national government.

Business Intelligence i SharePoint

The goal for this thesis work was to develop Business Intelligence (BI) for an IT consultant company.LexiConsult is an IT consultant company in the Lexicon-group which offers expertise within Office (templates, database, spreadsheets, Outlook etc.) but also SharePoint development and services like support, documentation etcetera.We have investigated the functionality in SharePoint and MS SQL Server and have also evaluated which possibilities these platforms offer in terms of creating a BI-solution for LexiConsults needs. SharePoint offers a variety of different tools and services for BI but none of these where available in the Office365-version which LexiConsult uses. Another solution was therefore suggested where the reports should be published on a web hosting company.We have also studied critical success factors when implementing BI in an IT consulting company.The result is a set of BI-reports developed for SQL Server Reporting Services (SSRS), which the staff of LexiConsult can access via their SharePoint site.The reports are designed for monitoring and analysis of the economy with e.g. key performance indicators, drill-down of the revenue in different aspects such as by time period, per employee, per customer etcetera. The reports provides vital knowledge that can be used for decision support, e.g.

Barkar det åt skogen för svenskt tidningspapper? : empirisk analys av efterfrågan och företagsstrategier på den svenska marknaden

According to Food and Agriculture Organization newsprint is defined as: Uncoated paper, unsized (or only slightly sized), containing at least 60 percent of mechanical wood pulp. The consumption of newsprint in Sweden was just over 798 000 tonnes in 2009, which represents approximately 90 kg per person. Although there are studies that predict a drastic reduction in newsprint consumption in the Western world, there seems to be a clear difference between Forecasts for the future given by statistical analysis of newsprint consumption and Forecasts given by experts in the industry. The former predict a continuing increase while the experts see a coming decrease in consumption.In this report, both demand and business strategies of newsprint in Sweden are studied. The study also presents a Forecast of the future which is based on historical data and qualitative interviews.

Investeringskalkylering : en kartläggning och analys av kalkyleringsarbetet på Volvo Construction Equipment

Problems: How does Volvos CE: s four Swedish plants work with investment appraisals? Does the work differ between the plants? If differences exist, what can be improved in order to make the work more uniform?  Purpose: To map the work with investment appraisals at Volvo CE: s four Swedish plats, to analyze differences in work between the plants and give proposals to a more homogenous working.Method: A method of qualitative nature. The study mainly contains raw data from semi structured interviews. Secondary data, such as internal policy documents and documentation of completed investment projects, has supplemented the raw data. Analysis: The mapping shows significant differences in work with investments between Volvo CE: s Swedish plants.

Applicerbarheten av produktanpassade supply chain-strategier inom stålindustrin : En fallstudie

AbstractThis study aims to investigate the applicability of well-recognized supply chain strategies based on product characteristics. Choosing the right supply chain strategy can be the difference between winner and loser in today?s competitive climate and science offers several recommendations as to which aspects that should be considered. Fisher (1997) and Christopher and Towill (2002) suggest that supply chain strategies should be based on what kind of product the company is handling and that, in order to know which strategy is the most appropriate, the products must be categorized. Some criteria developed for the categorization are lead time, Forecast in demand and profit margin.

Mikrosimulering för analys av Mästergatans förlängning i Enköping

Two of the main approach roads into the city of Enköping are Salavägen and Stockholmsvägen. They are connected to each other through the street Bangårdsgatan in the roundabout Salatullen and crossing Fannakorset, respectively. These crossings are from time to time heavily loaded, which is why the municipality plan for a new street in parallel to Bangårdsgatan. The traffic will then be spread out and is thereby reducing the density. The new street is actually an extension of the existing Mästergatan, a side street to Salavägen, to the east and connecting it to Stockholmsvägen or a street nearby.The purpose of this Master thesis is to show how the new street can be drawn in order to discharge the traffic in the area between the roundabout Salatullen and the crossing Fannakorset.

Konsten att förutspå konjunkturen - Hur användbara är enkätbaserade snabbindikatorer?

Foreseeing future changes in economic activity is of up most importance to a wide array of actors. The time lag in the presentation of official GDP statistics means that to somewhat accurately capture a tendency of where the business cycle is heading one need turn to qualitative sentiment indicators such as Purchasing Managers? Index (PMI) and official sentiment indicators for valuable clues. This thesis uses in-sample and out-of-sample methods to evaluate how well PMI and official Business Tendency Surveys (BTS) in Sweden and Denmark fair against the year-on-year growth rate of industrial production. Moreover, various Swedish regional sentiment indicators get examined and a case study of the indicator for the Öresund region is performed.

Kreditbedömningsprocessen : Jämförelse mellan de fyra storbankerna i Sverige

The financial crisis in the beginning of the 1990´s the financial crisis had a strong impact on the Swedish economy. Some of the main actors in the crisis were the largest banks of Sweden which brought a huge amount of losses on themselves. One of the main reasons for this was that the banks focused on volume increases rather than on credit losses. The credit analysis process is performed differently these days and it is the development of this process that is the focus for the authors.This thesis is about the credit analysis process in the four largest banks of Sweden. The purpose of the thesis is to highlight which factors the banks include in the credit analysis process and in how small and medium size companies are treated in this process.

Innovativa mötesplatser för barn och unga : Processutvärdering av Jämjö GoIFs framtidsgrupper

Det är viktigt att utvärdera hälsofrämjande arbete. Utvärdering är en formell värdering av nyttan av någonting. Utvärderingar delas in i tre kategorier: Formativ utvärdering, Processutvärderingen samt Resultatutvärdering. Idrottsföreningen Jämjö GoIF driver sedan 2012 ett projekt som heter ?Nya mötesplatser för unga människor på landsbygd?.

Följdinvandring och medborgarskap : en statistisk analys

During the last years around 100 000 immigrants have arrived to Sweden, people with different reasons and different goals for settling down in Sweden. The reason for immigrating to Sweden that will be dealt with in this thesis is following immigration, i.e. when someone moves here because they have relatives living in the country.The reason why it is interesting to study following immigration is that it is an affecting factor for how many that will immigrate to Sweden the following years and may then be used to make a Forecast, based on how many first time immigrants there are. To be able to investigate the following immigration analyses are made with time series, logistic regression and Poisson regression. An ARIMA-model has been used to estimate the number of following immigrants in the future.The other part of this thesis will inquire the matter how inclined immigrants are to become Swedish citizens, whether they even apply for citizenship and also how long time it takes from the time when they fulfil the conditions for Swedish citizenship until they apply.

Ekonomisk styrning i banksektorn : En jämförelse av två storbanker i Sverige med fokus på flexibla styrmedel.

A more complex and turbulent world market puts pressure on flexibility and the ability to adjust its business to the market changes. The rapid and unpredictable change is hade to analyze and Forecast which demands more short-term Forecasting. The issue for this dissertation is based upon the demand of more flexible ways of doing business in the bank sector in Sweden, which is a turbulent and unpredictable market. Handelsbanken is a company that uses the so called Beyond budgeting concept and the dissertation is about this company?s ability to solve the economic governance without the traditional budgeting process.

Innovativa mötesplatser för barn och unga - Processutvärdering av Jämjö GoIFs framtidsgrupper

Det är viktigt att utvärdera hälsofrämjande arbete. Utvärdering är en formell värdering av nyttan av någonting. Utvärderingar delas in i tre kategorier: Formativ utvärdering, Processutvärderingen samt Resultatutvärdering. Idrottsföreningen Jämjö GoIF driver sedan 2012 ett projekt som heter ?Nya mötesplatser för unga människor på landsbygd?. En del av projektet är mötesplatser för barn på idrottsplatsen som kallas framtidsgrupper.

Implementering av Neutrallager - En fallstudie inom Tooling Support Halmstad AB

Demand has become increasingly difficult to Forecast in today?s volatile markets. Being able to produce towards real demand is becoming vital for companies, since inventories of finished goods are expensive to maintain and because miscalculated products tie up capital that in the end is never repaid. More and more companies are using postponement strategies to delay the process of producing until real demand has become known. Tooling Support Halmstad is a company within the manufacturing industry, which has become aware of the benefits with postponement strategies for parts of their production.

Basel II och fastighetsbranschen - en scenariostudie av de nya kapitaltäckningsreglernas konsekvenser för fastighetsbranschen

Banks carry a great responsibility when it comes to the financial systems in our society. Disturbance in the credit system affects both lender and borrower. All financial institutions must therefore carefully estimate their risk exposure. This assessment enables them to cover themselves from losses with appropriate capital buffers as main guardian. In order to prevent bank crises and also to maintain financial stability in general, new regulations concerning analysis and preventive actions were introduced on the 1st of February 2007.

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