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285 Uppsatser om Forecast error - Sida 7 av 19
Beskattning av skalbolagstransaktioner : Analys av skalbolagsreglerna ur ett tillämpnings- och rättssäkerhetsperspektiv
Shell companies are characterized by containing liquid assets such as cash, securities or other similar assets. Transactions of shell companies constitutes a severe problem since the purchaser often has the aim of obtaining undue tax advantages by not paying the tax debt of the company.Historically it has been complicated for the legislator to stop the set-up in an efficient way since the transactions as such are not illegal, instead rather commonly used for example to restructure companies or for the transfer of companies to the younger generation. The purpose of the current legislation is to prevent individuals and corporations to involve in shell company trade. Aiming for an efficient legislation, the tax rate is at a very high level.The issue with the rules is that also honest buyers are at risk of being covered. This calls for high demands in complying with the principle of legal certainty and the possibility to forecast the tax consequences.The purpose of the thesis is to identify and analyze eventual problems when applying the legislation.
Kan den svenska avkastningskurvan användas som indikator för den svenska inflationen?
Abstrakt The yield curve as a forecasting tool for inflation has been thoroughly investigated. However, most of these studies considered only the major economies, such as the U.S. economy or the major European economies and not a small open economy such as the Swedish. The Swedish economy should be much more affected by the world economy then the bigger economies. The purpose with this study is then to investigate whether the Swedish yield curve, or the Swedish interest rate, can be used as forecasting tools for the Swedish inflation.
Gulliver Simulation - En systemarkitektur f or n atverkssimulering av
Nowadays, a lot of resources are spent on developing systems that will make it possible forvehicles to act autonomously, and make them more effective. One of the projects that isworking on this is the Gulliver Project. Gulliver has constructed a number of miniaturevehicles equipped with various sensors, to use as a physical testbed for autonomousdriving. One big disadvantage with this method is the long iteration time that occursduring the development and testing of a new software.This project has improved this process by developing a system architecture of a virtualtestbed where it is possible to simulate autonomus vehicles that communicates throughany type of wireless network. The testbed has made it possible to simulate autonomusvehicle systems that with a reasonable margin of error, acts like the system would actin a physical test.
Utvärdering av Transportstyrelsens flygtrafiksmodeller
The Swedish Transport Agency has for a long time collected data on a monthly basis for different variables that are used to make predictions, short projections as well as longer projections. They have used SAS for producing statistical models in air transport. The model with the largest value of coefficient of determination is the method that has been used for a long time. The Swedish Transport Agency felt it was time for an evaluation of their models and methods of how projections is estimated, they would also explore the possibilities to use different, completely new models for forecasting air travel. This Bachelor thesis examines how the Holt-Winters method does compare with SARIMA, error terms such as RMSE, MAPE, R2, AIC and BIC will be compared between the methods. The results which have been produced showing that there may be a risk that the Holt-Winters models adepts a bit too well in a few variables in which Holt-Winters method has been adapted.
Effekter av ett informationsintensivt material- och produktionsstyrningssystem
We were assigned to do this master thesis by Husqvarna AB who at the time for this thesis just had implemented a new material and production planning system called Replenishment system. Husqvarna AB wanted us to examine the effects of their new planning system to see if it was profitable or not. Husqvarna AB had for a time considered their delivery and supplier service to bee their biggest problem and they wanted to solve this problem by improving the communication with all involved actors in the logistic chain, which they hoped would result in a better mix of products in their warehouses. The aim of this report was therefor to analyze eventual effects for Husqvarna AB when changing from a traditional material- and production planing system to a more information intensive one. The result of this report showed effects on decreasing administrational routines and improved flexibility and lead-times.
Konstruktion av mutterdragare för stora moment
This degree project was conducted in collaboration with Gremo AB located in Ätran.The aim of the project was to develop a solution to secure quality and to help assemblingthe locknut holding the vertical hinge on the harvesters and foresters from Gremo.At this time the nut is assembled manually by the aid of an overhead crane. The nut istightened differently from time to time, and there was no specified torque to which it istightened. Another present problem was the locking washer which sometimes getsdamaged during assembly, when this happens the procedure has to be started over fromthe beginning. The current assembly procedure is very time consuming and lengthy forthe employees.Our task was to design a machine that could tighten the nut to a specified torque with amargin of error of ± 3%. The assembly procedure will be held simple and the timerequired at a minimum.The project started by developing several principle solutions, the one solution that bestmatched our specifications were developed to a primary solution.Today we have started manufacturing and assembling our prototype.
Temperature monitoring during transport of test samples
Quality is the main focus in management of all laboratories. Accurate results of the analyses are not only determined by the analytical procedure but also by preanalytical factors. In the total analytical process of clinical specimens, there are many possible preanalytical sources of error. Monetoring of temperature on test samples of the transport boxes is one way to reduce the mistakes in the preanalytical phase.In this study, four laboratories from primary health care were invited to participate. The temperature has been measured on test samples of the transport boxes being delivered to the laboratory.In three cases the temperature remained within the limits, but in the fourth case the temperature varied more than the allowed interval.
Prognosmodell för svenska läns bruttoregionalprodukt (BRP) : En komparativ analys av bayesian model averaging, best subset selection och en longitudinell modell.
Föreliggande uppsats har som främsta syfte att skapa en prognosmodell för bruttoregionalprodukten (BRP) för Sveriges 21 län. Behovet av en prognosmodell motiveras av att Statistiska centralbyrån (SCB) i dagsläget redovisar de definitiva siffrorna av BRP med två års fördröjning. Det kan därmed finnas ett intresse hos regionala beslutsfattare att få en uppfattning om hur BRP utvecklats under de två senaste åren. Metoden som används är bayesian model averaging (BMA), vilken kommer att utvärderas samt jämföras med två andra metoder: En multipel linjär modell som skattas med minsta kvadratmetoden där variabelselektion utförs med best subset selection (BSS). Den andra metoden är en tidsseriemodell och kallas här för en longitudinell modell (LM).
Application development for automated positioning of 3D-representations of a modularized product
This thesis presents an application that performs positioning of modules automatically based on given data for every module, and the development of it. The basis of the application is from a previous thesis code. On top of that code, more features and error handling has been added, as well as fixes for various bugs. A stress test has been performed and further development possibilities are being presented.The thesis work was carried out at Toyota Material Handling Mjölby (TMH) and was made in parallel with another thesis by Fredrik Holden who was generating data for the application. For a complete understanding of the theory and background, please also read Holden?s thesis report ?Development of method for automated positioning of 3D-representations of a modularized product?, as well as the former thesis ?Analysis for Automated Positioning of 3D-representation of a Modularized product??..
Att arbeta med ständig osäkerhet : En studie av High Reliability Organization
There are certain organizations that manage to handle risk in such a successful way that they almost stay error-free, in spite of the fact that they daily face the risks of accidents. These organizations are usually given the name High Reliability Organizations (HRO). While the most common example is that of a nuclear plant the variety of what organizations can fit into the category is extensive.The purpose of this study is to describe safety culture and theories about HRO and how these can be found in practise within an organization.This qualitative research uses influences of ethnography in its method. The ethnographical approach was picked due to the field of the study and the cultural context in which it is set.The results of the study identify a number of elements sorted into four themes. These themes are deemed compatible or non-compatible with relevant existing theories.
Vinstmått: En jämförelse av marknadens definitioner och antaganden rörande vinst
This thesis investigates whether it is accordance between the different profit measures in the financial market. The first aim of the thesis is to examine if it exists a difference between the profit measures that companies publish in their fourth quarter interim report and the measures that they state in their annual report, issued some months later. The second aim is to examine whether there is a divergence in definitions and the assumption regarding the risk of bankruptcy between profit measures published by companies and analysts. The study focuses on Swedish companies listed on the OMX Stockholm Large Cap and concerns the years of 2006 and 2007. The analysts interviewed are working in Sweden with listed Swedish companies.
Kravanalytikerns roll : Kommunikationsförmedlare mellan olika intressenter i ett IT-projekt
According to statistics, requirements management is identified as a major source of error to failed IT-projects. Moreover communication is identified as a factor affecting the require-ments management and can lead to deficiencies in the requirements. The requirements analyst is responsible for managing the requirements from the different stakeholders, act as a com-munication accommodator and to translate abstract requirements expressed by users to more specific requirements that developers can implement. The purpose of this thesis is to study the role of the requirements analyst to investigate the problems that may arise in working with requirements management. To achieve the purpose we have performed a requirements management process in which we ourselves took the role as the requirements analysts. The requirements management process consisted of three phases: gather requirements, document requirements and validate require-ments.
Den andres bröd : Levnadsrisk utifrån Lee-Cartermodellen
Under det gångna århundradet ökade den förväntade livslängden avsevärt såväl i Sverige som i övriga världen. 1900-talets förbättrade livslängd drevs inledningsvis av en minskad barnadödlighet medan de senare årtiondena kännetecknades av minskad dödlighet i höga åldrar.En åldrande befolkning innebär ökade krav på sjukvård, äldreomsorg och inte minst pensionssystem. Pålitliga prognoser för vår framtida livslängd behövs för att beräkna de resurser som nämnda verksamheter kommer att ta i anspråk och utgör förutsättningen för en rättvis prissättning av försäkringsprodukter med levnadsrisk.Lee-Carter-modellen är en av vår tids tongivande modeller för mortalitetsprognostisering. Modellen används här för att göra livslängdsprognoser utifrån svenska mortalitetsdata; prognoserna jämförs sedan med observerade utfall.Mot bakgrund av resultatet diskuteras levnadsrisk med fokus på pensioner.Inte oväntat presterar prognoserna ingen felfri bild av verkligheten och prognosfelet varierar i storlek mellan skattningarna; att använda dem som underlag för pensionsberäkningar hade i förlängningen varit ohållbart. Exemplet illustrerar på samma gång vår osäkerhet inför framtidens livslängdsutveckling och svårigheten i att prognostisera den..
Preaching to the choir? A Comparison of Fiscal Forecasts by Governments, Fiscal Policy Councils and the European Commission in the European Semester Framework
The high debt levels experienced in European Countries have lead to academic interest in the deficit bias -the tendency for governments to run budget deficits and accumulate debt. In part one of this thesis a surveyof the economic literature on the origins and solutions to the deficit bias are conducted. The proposedinstitutional solution to the deficit bias in the form of Fiscal Policy Councils (FPC) are outlined and existingEuropean FPCs presented. Based on the works of Calmfors and Wren-Lewis (2011) the EuropeanCommission (EC) is defined as an FPC. Based on this survey, two hypothesis are formulated: (1) theforecasts of future macro-economic events and fiscal performance will differ between the national FPCs andthe national government.
Effektiv betong för småhusproduktion : Betong med högt luftinnehåll för platta på mark
This Masters thesis work describes a comparison between two different methods for estimation of the down channel (base station to mobile subscriber) in Wide-band Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA). The first estimation method, Optimal Feed-forward Channel Estimation (OFCE), is a conventional method that bases the estimates on data that is known to both sender and receiver, so called pilots. The second method, Decision Directed Channel Estimation (DDCE), is an elaboration of OFCE. It also uses user data for estimation. Simulations show that DDCE, in comparison to OFCE, does not attain an improvement in signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) for high bit error rates (BER).