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9736 Uppsatser om Econometric analysis; probabilty models - Sida 1 av 650
Deltidsarbete bland kvinnor i Sverige - vad påverkar val av arbetstid?
English title: Part-time work among women in Sweden ? what influences choice of working hours? In the 1960s and 70s a large growth in part-time work amongst women in the Swedish labour market took place. A net inflow of workers into the labour market has been suggested as the main source. However, part-time work is still a common phenomenon among Swedish women; in 2004 almost 40% of all women worked part-time, and women are clearly dominating the part-time sector. A gradual changeover from house work to market work is hardly a valid explanation anymore.
Finansiella värderingsmodeller : En empirisk studie
This study tests two financial valuation models empirically by valuing three stocks from three industries, with the purpose of studying how well valuation models work empirically and to make a forecast. The models which will be tested are residual income valuation and discounted cash flow. Nine stocks will be picked strategically from the Swedish stock market and additional analysis will follow in the analysis chapter.Based on analysis and valuation, the commodities industry has decent valuation as the healthcare industry is undervalued thanks to the high valuation of AZN. The energy industry has low value due to the capital intensive nature of the industry. When it comes to the models and their practical implementation, DCF has been the most problematic to apply empirically whereas RIV was better but it still shows extreme values, which teaches the student the clear difference between theory and empiri..
Blankning-en studie av instrumentets effekter på Stockholmsbörsen
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate possible links between short selling and the stock market movements using econometric test models. Methodology: A quantitative study carried out on the time series stock lending and OMX Stockholm 30 index. Information is gathered through qualitative interviews with specialists in the field of stock lending, and studies of relevant newspaper articles and reports. Theoretical approach: The theoretical frame of reference is a further consideration of supply and demand theory. The empirical study is implemented by the simple linear regression model and a vector autoregressive model (VAR).
The impact of climate change on agriculture in the Republic of Mauritius : a socio-econometric study on Mauritian farming
"Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" (FAO Summit, 2003, pp. 28).Food insecurity is of concern regarding the Republic of Mauritius (ROM) since it is defined as a net food importing country. (Farming news, 2008). The impacts of climate change followed by their complexity could potentially have an increased risk effect upon the social and environmental welfare as well as the economic drivers in the ROM (www, UNESCO1, 2009). The primary victims when it comes to the impacts of climate change are the Mauritian agricultural producers since agriculture is highly dependent on climate stability, therefore affecting the yields of the producers.
Prisbildningen för småhus och fritidshus i Stockholms län : En ekonometrisk tidsserieanalys 1993 - 2009
Determinants of Small Housing Prices in Stockholm 1993-2009, is an econometric study. Regression analysis is used to identify and measure the dominant factors that determine small house prices in Stockholm. Economical fundamenta and neo-liberal varaibles are in use to explain nominal overprices in the house market, as well as the steady development of real house prices in the region..
När barn behöver stöd i skolan : Direkta och indirekta målformuleringar
The aim of this thesis was to investigate the relation between different kinds ofremedial teaching models, not specifically addressed to pupils with physicaldisabilities, in the Swedish school context, and to describe and analyze theobjectives related to each model. Research focus was held on professionaldescriptions of school related problems and arguments for different kind of models,but also on objectives formulated in Swedish school policy. As theoretical toolswere used discourse analysis and interpretive policy analysis. The concept ofalienation as it appears throughout Foucault?s work was also used to understand howdifferent knowledge fields as education, special education, psychology and medicinedivide themselves from each other.
Utvärdering av beräkningskoden APROS för användning i inneslutningsanalyser
At Forsmark nuclear power plant the rather old-fashioned software COPTA is used in containment safety analysis. There exists a desire within the organisation to introduce a more modern software with ability to more detailed modeling and increased usability.The goal of this thesis was to evaluate the software APROS in containment safety analysis. APROS models describing one of the containments at Forsmark NPP have been developed. Two simulations of typical containment incidents, one of them a large pipe break, have been made where containment safety parameters such as pressure and temperature are studied. Results are analyzed and verified against results from corresponding COPTA models.
Aktievärdering : En studie om vilka aktievärderingsmodeller som främst tillämpas av finansanalytiker inom bankväsendet
Introduction: Analysts worldwide valuates stocks and companies by using different valuation models. The models are used to calculate how much public company?s stocks are worth and to identify whether stocks are over- or undervalued. Objective: The objective of this essay is to study which valuation models are mainly used by financial analysts in Swedish banks. The purpose is also to study how reliable these models are considered. Method: The empirical study is based on a qualitative approach through interviews with financial analysts. The study includes both primary data (interviews) and secondary data (literature, websites and scientific articles)Theory: The theory chapter includes methods of analysis (fundamental and technical analysis), Valuation models, components of valuation and an example of a valuation with the Discounted cash flow model. Empirical study: The study includes a qualitative research that consists of interviews with financial analysts.
Prediktioner och förklaringsmodeller för konkurser i aktiebolag : en studie av tre svenska aktiebolag i konkurs
Title: Predictions and explanation models for bankruptcy in stock-companies ? A study of three failed Swedish companies Author: Tim Svanberg Supervisor: Emil Numminen Department: School of Management, Blekinge Institute of technology Course: Bachelor?s thesis in business administration, 10 credits Purpose: The purpose of the thesis is to find explanation for bankruptcy with the help of prediction models. The purpose is also to add explanation by using Behavioral analysis Method: Quantitative research of bankruptcies using financial prediction models and qualitative study of psychological pitfalls. The study is deductive. Results: I found that it is possible to explain the bankruptcies using the prediction models.
Evaluation and Comparison of Ecological Models Simulating Nitrogen Processes in Treatment Wetlands,Implemented in Modelica
Two ecological models of nitrogen processes in treatment wetlands have been evaluated and compared. These models have been implemented, simulated, and visualized in the Modelica language. The differences and similarities between the Modelica modeling environment used in this thesis and other environments or tools for ecological modeling have been evaluated. The modeling tools evaluated are PowerSim, Simile, Stella, the MathModelica Model Editor, and WEST. The evaluation and the analysis have been performed using McCall?s factors for software quality (McCall et al, 1977), a correlation analysis and the Constant Comparative Method (Glaser&Strauss, 1999).
Vad påverkar HIV i Sydafrika? : En teoretisk och empirisk analys av Sydafrikas provinser 2008
What affects Hiv in South Africa's different provinces? This thesis examines if education, unemployment rate, GDP per capita, and the literacy rate has any relationship with the Hiv prevalence. This is analyzed using theory and data in the form of a simple microeconomic model and an econometric regression analysis based on cross sectional data of the provinces of South Africa. The regression analysis shows that unemployment rate and education have significant effects of the Hiv prevalence in South Africa. The microeconomic model in the thesis indicates that when education is higher, individuals are more aware that the probability of being infected by Hiv is higher when the Hiv prevalence is high.
Kreditklassning av aktiebolag i Sverige, en logistisk regression
Predicting corporate failure is an increasingly important topic in the world of economics today. This paper, with the help of the credit ranking company Syna AB, aims to investigate a few different statistic strategies to do just that. This task is accomplished by using a data material of 250 000 Swedish companies divided into two subsamples. The first sample is used to develop the model and the second as a validation sample. The model developing sample holds 160 000 companies divided into five different subgroups based on size and age.
Price adjustment and vacancies on theStockholm market ? Estimation of rent levelsdue to office-allocations
The Stockholm office market segment have for a long time been considered a safe havenwhen it comes to withstand negative turmoil in the form of rental compression due toeconomic fluctuation, especially in the CBD demographic. Recently however, a large numberof banks and institutions, amounting to some 200000 square meters, have decided to relocateto more peripheral locations with the aim of cost reductions on rent. This mass exodus isstudied with focus on rental dynamics as the result of increased vacancies. Other variables arestock changes and employment. The method is econometric combined with an interviewseries.
Transferfunktionsmodeller modellering och prognoser av Sjötransportindex
We have by Statistics Sweden (SCB) been given the task of using different dynamic regression models in order to forecast service price index for sea transport. The aim is to see whether these models provide better forecasts than those previously used. This essay aim to identify, estimate and evaluate the selected prediction models. Through our data material we were given access to 28 sightings of sea transport index during the period of 2004 q1 to 2010 q4. We have chosen to evaluate three different transfer function models, one ARIMA model and one naive forecasting model. The input variables we decided to test in our transfer function models were the price of petroleum products, the port activity in Swedish ports and the lending rate of Swedish Central bank. The results of our study suggest that transfer function models generally provide better models than the ARIMA model and the naive forecast model.
Prediktioner och förklaringsmodeller för konkurser i aktiebolag - en studie av tre svenska aktiebolag i konkurs
Title: Predictions and explanation models for bankruptcy in stock-companies
? A study of three failed Swedish companies
Author: Tim Svanberg
Supervisor: Emil Numminen
Department: School of Management, Blekinge Institute of technology
Course: Bachelor?s thesis in business administration, 10 credits
Purpose: The purpose of the thesis is to find explanation for bankruptcy with
the help of prediction models. The purpose is also to add explanation by using
Behavioral analysis
Method: Quantitative research of bankruptcies using financial prediction models
and qualitative study of psychological pitfalls. The study is deductive.
Results: I found that it is possible to explain the bankruptcies using the
prediction models. The behavioural perspective adds further explanation.